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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. David Spiegelhalter‏ @d_spiegel 23 Aug 2018

      ‘no safe level of alcohol’, but Lancet study means 25,000 light drinkers need annual equivalent of 400,000 bottles of gin for one serious health problem among them each yearhttps://medium.com/wintoncentre/the-risks-of-alcohol-again-2ae8cb006a4a …

      90 replies 1,062 retweets 1,679 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2018
      Replying to @d_spiegel @Butterworthy

      It's odd, because you are a statistician using large numbers to mislead. 400,000 bottles of gin sounds like a lot, but depending on estimates that's between half and a third of the average alcohol consumption for a UK adult

      4 replies 2 retweets 36 likes
    3. David Spiegelhalter‏ @d_spiegel 24 Aug 2018
      Replying to @GidMK @Butterworthy

      exactly, but it’s reasonable to express total exposure needed to expect one case. Which is a lot

      1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2018
      Replying to @d_spiegel @Butterworthy

      It sounds like a lot when you multiply to the population level. For an individual, 16 bottles of gin per year is actually much less than average

      1:33 AM - 24 Aug 2018
      • 3 Retweets
      • 36 Likes
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      9 replies 3 retweets 36 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2018
          Replying to @GidMK @d_spiegel @Butterworthy

          In a similar vein, it would be a bit misleading to argue that this low level of drinking would cause thousands of cancers/CVD events in the UK. It's true, but hardly applicable to the individual

          3 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
        3. onisillos sekkides‏ @onisillos 24 Aug 2018
          Replying to @GidMK @d_spiegel @Butterworthy

          Not entirely relevant I know, but given the discussion above is against a backdrop of light drinking, it's worth noting that this is apparently economically unsustainable for the industry (at least in England) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/add.14386 …

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Mike Clark‏ @mrc7cam 24 Aug 2018
          Replying to @GidMK @d_spiegel @Butterworthy

          Yes but 25,000 of the moderate drinkers have had the enjoyment of that gin and only one of them has suffered an additional serious health consequence.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2018
          Replying to @mrc7cam @d_spiegel @Butterworthy

          Oh I'm not saying moderate drinking is an absolute negative. It would be hypocritical if nothing else. Merely pointing out an issue I have with the use of figures

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
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        2. Freddie Bouchier‏ @freddiebouchier 24 Aug 2018
          Replying to @drczentile @GidMK and

          Does the average person drink more than 1/2 pint of 4.3% beer/cider per day? https://tinyurl.com/y9fe85m2  In 2016 17% men and 22% women drank 0 units/day 53% men and 62% women drank ≤ 2 units/day 31% men and 23% women drank ≥ 2 units/day Each underreport by perhaps 50%. Yes.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. dasVITT‏ @dasvee 24 Aug 2018
          Replying to @GidMK @d_spiegel @Butterworthy

          Really?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Ian Davies‏ @IanDavies100 24 Aug 2018
          Replying to @GidMK @d_spiegel @Butterworthy

          ...and would seem to result in only a low chance of an adverse health consequence. I think that's DS's point.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Paul Rogers‏ @SS401 24 Aug 2018
          Replying to @GidMK @d_spiegel @Butterworthy

          Crikey! If this is average, I really need to drink more!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Parliament Must Decide‏ @newpaulhearn 24 Aug 2018
          Replying to @GidMK @d_spiegel @Butterworthy

          16 bottles is infinitely more than the zero in 'no safe level' though.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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