It is always fun to write a lengthy blog, a detailed thread, and have someone strawman two minor points in that broad discussion to argue that you're wronghttps://twitter.com/sib313/status/1032217398118637576 …
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Replying to @GidMK
You led with "moderate drinking isn't good for you". If your point was this study didn't show that, fine. But the headline implies that no studies show that, which is false.
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Replying to @sib313
Nope, you should totally read more of the thread and linked blog, a number of studies have shown this
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Replying to @GidMK
And you should read more David Spiegalhalter who has criticised the way headlines are generated from alcohol studies. Eg: https://understandinguncertainty.org/misleading-conclusions-alcohol-protection-study …
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Replying to @sib313
I mean, I argue similarly that headlines are mostly garbage. There's no good reason to believe that alcohol is protective, and every reason to believe that it is harmful regardless of the dose
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Replying to @GidMK
But that isn’t what the collective evidence says despite much effort to prove otherwise. Believe what you want but don’t deny the evidence.
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Replying to @sib313
Generally speaking, the more rigorous the control for confounding, the more attenuated the positive correlation btwn alcohol and outcomes becomes. The few controlled trials on the subject have seen the opposite result. Given that it is biologically unlikely...
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...that alcohol is providing a benefit, and there are known, direct causal pathways between alcohol and harm, it is reasonable to conclude that even moderate intakes of alcohol are harmful. This has also been shown in a number of epidemiological studies...
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...such as this one, from NZ, where the association appeared significantly protective but was entirely mitigated through controlling for social confounders: https://academic.oup.com/psychsocgerontology/article-abstract/doi/10.1093/geronb/gbw152/2645642/The-Health-Benefits-of-Moderate-Drinking-in-Older?redirectedFrom=fulltext …
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I am not denying the evidence, merely pointing out that there is good reason to believe that the common interpretation - moderate drinking is beneficial - runs counter to a significant body of evidence as well as biological plausibility
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I said this all much less academically in my thread, but if you wanted an academic word-salad there you go
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