If you have a look at this table of demographics, it'll give you a massive hint:pic.twitter.com/DhKal1mZp3
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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If you have a look at this table of demographics, it'll give you a massive hint:pic.twitter.com/DhKal1mZp3
Yes, it appears that social factors are almost certainly to blame. If you compare the former/never drinkers with everyone else, they are older, fatter, and poorer
What this means is that there are likely many confounding variables that this observational research did not pick up on, what's known as residual confoundingpic.twitter.com/M1MVWismMY
Since this study was a bunched-together analysis of several observational studies, there are always going to be factors that could not be included in the analysis
And, to their credit, the authors acknowledge this cheerfully:pic.twitter.com/2zXvFpgTvs
In fact, the authors recommend caution generally, because of the weird association with heavy drinking that they foundpic.twitter.com/GGz0KivsHv
The other thing to note is that, while the hazard ratios look impressive (50% more heart disease in the non-drinkers!), the absolute risk differences were very small - between 1 and 2 percent
So Moderate drinking isn't good for you This study found a weak and strange association between drinking and a reduced risk of heart disease It is ALMOST CERTAINLY explained by social differences between the groups they looked at
What's even worse, the main finding of the study wasn't even about moderate drinking per se. The authors were really looking at whether INCONSISTENT - i.e. heavy/moderate/heavy/light - drinking was problematic And they found that it was
Now, this finding suffers from the same issues as the other ones, but still, that's a really interesting result that deserves further investigation Not at all "Moderate drinking is good for you"
Bottom line: moderate drinking is almost certainly harmful to your health Don't drink to be healthy, because it isn't That's not a great story, but it's the truth
Also, as has been pointed out, heavy drinking is DEFINITELY BAD FOR YOU 21+ drinks a week (3+ bottles of wine) is bad, don't do it, get help if you need it to stop
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