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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      Bit of an easy question there: moderate drinking was associated with a lower risk of heart disease and cardiovascular mortality. Not surprising 7/pic.twitter.com/YAAzs4vUus

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      But what about HEAVY drinkers? People who had more than 21 standard drinks per week? Protective or causative of heart disease? 8/

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      Now, see, this should be easy too. Prior research has consistently shown that, above a fairly low threshold (1-2 drinks per day), drinking is terrible for your heart

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      But guess what? This study found the opposite! Heavy drinking was associated with the same reduced risk as moderate drinkingpic.twitter.com/nfZk8UekG4

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      In fact, the only groups that this study found to be at greater risk of heart disease were never-drinkers and former drinkers Weird, thatpic.twitter.com/V8kSL1lv7A

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      It's easy to see why people who used to drink might be worse off - they are likely former alcoholics in recovery But what about consistent non-drinkers?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      There are a few possibilities: 1. Former alcoholics who misreported their drinking status 2. Unhealthy people (i.e. chronic liver disease) who don't drink for that reason 3. Unable to afford alcohol, and likely less well off 4. Rare non-health-related-abstainer

      2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      But, I digress (and also messed up my threading somewhere) I was talking about heavy drinkers. What could possibly make them healthier?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      If you have a look at this table of demographics, it'll give you a massive hint:pic.twitter.com/DhKal1mZp3

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      Yes, it appears that social factors are almost certainly to blame. If you compare the former/never drinkers with everyone else, they are older, fatter, and poorer

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

      What this means is that there are likely many confounding variables that this observational research did not pick up on, what's known as residual confoundingpic.twitter.com/M1MVWismMY

      7:11 PM - 21 Aug 2018
      • 9 Likes
      • Kelsey W Joanne Dowds Nicole Tay kfunk937 Gpoptosis Gina standard system 🌷 Meena Bewtra Shoshana, MPH
      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

          Since this study was a bunched-together analysis of several observational studies, there are always going to be factors that could not be included in the analysis

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

          And, to their credit, the authors acknowledge this cheerfully:pic.twitter.com/2zXvFpgTvs

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

          In fact, the authors recommend caution generally, because of the weird association with heavy drinking that they foundpic.twitter.com/GGz0KivsHv

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

          The other thing to note is that, while the hazard ratios look impressive (50% more heart disease in the non-drinkers!), the absolute risk differences were very small - between 1 and 2 percent

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

          So Moderate drinking isn't good for you This study found a weak and strange association between drinking and a reduced risk of heart disease It is ALMOST CERTAINLY explained by social differences between the groups they looked at

          1 reply 3 retweets 7 likes
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        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

          What's even worse, the main finding of the study wasn't even about moderate drinking per se. The authors were really looking at whether INCONSISTENT - i.e. heavy/moderate/heavy/light - drinking was problematic And they found that it was

          1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

          Now, this finding suffers from the same issues as the other ones, but still, that's a really interesting result that deserves further investigation Not at all "Moderate drinking is good for you"

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

          Bottom line: moderate drinking is almost certainly harmful to your health Don't drink to be healthy, because it isn't That's not a great story, but it's the truth

          1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

          Also, as has been pointed out, heavy drinking is DEFINITELY BAD FOR YOU 21+ drinks a week (3+ bottles of wine) is bad, don't do it, get help if you need it to stop

          2 replies 3 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        11. End of conversation

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