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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

    Health Nerd Retweeted Business Insider Australia

    Oh god, it's happening again That's not what this study found, it's not true, moderate drinking isn't good for you 1/https://twitter.com/BIAUS/status/1032062702124818433 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Business Insider AustraliaVerified account @BIAUS
    A health study looked at 35,000 people over 10 years and concluded moderate drinking is good for you http://bit.ly/2OWWZi1 
    6:45 PM - 21 Aug 2018
    • 21 Retweets
    • 54 Likes
    • Jen Keir Adrian @ School of Strength Bega Brady Holmer Kathlyn Stone thanks for banning Katie Lily | 🇿🇼 🇿🇦 Ryback Cyzr Georgia Abubakr Bodiat
    3 replies 21 retweets 54 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        The study that's being reported here is a meta-analysis of 6 different observational trials looking at drinking habits in England and France 2/pic.twitter.com/kyXyB7CZrO

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        This means that the researchers combined the data from 6 studies into one big analysis, and looked at the associations between drinking and heart disease 3/ You can find the study here: https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-018-1123-6#Tab2 …

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        What has previous research shown on this topic? Well, if you look at observational trials done in the last few years, you find a wildly mixed bag 4/

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        I've written about this before. Essentially, depending on the number of confounding variables you control for, you either find moderate drinking to be protective or causative for heart disease 5/https://medium.com/@gidmk/the-myth-of-moderate-drinking-6c05687179d7 …

        1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        Back to the study at hand. The researchers looked at moderate drinking and chronic heart disease, as well as heart disease deaths, in an observational trial. They controlled for only a few confounders in their analysis. Do you think they found moderate drinking to be: 6/

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        Bit of an easy question there: moderate drinking was associated with a lower risk of heart disease and cardiovascular mortality. Not surprising 7/pic.twitter.com/YAAzs4vUus

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        But what about HEAVY drinkers? People who had more than 21 standard drinks per week? Protective or causative of heart disease? 8/

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        Now, see, this should be easy too. Prior research has consistently shown that, above a fairly low threshold (1-2 drinks per day), drinking is terrible for your heart

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        But guess what? This study found the opposite! Heavy drinking was associated with the same reduced risk as moderate drinkingpic.twitter.com/nfZk8UekG4

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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      11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        In fact, the only groups that this study found to be at greater risk of heart disease were never-drinkers and former drinkers Weird, thatpic.twitter.com/V8kSL1lv7A

        1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        It's easy to see why people who used to drink might be worse off - they are likely former alcoholics in recovery But what about consistent non-drinkers?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        There are a few possibilities: 1. Former alcoholics who misreported their drinking status 2. Unhealthy people (i.e. chronic liver disease) who don't drink for that reason 3. Unable to afford alcohol, and likely less well off 4. Rare non-health-related-abstainer

        2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        But, I digress (and also messed up my threading somewhere) I was talking about heavy drinkers. What could possibly make them healthier?

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      15. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        If you have a look at this table of demographics, it'll give you a massive hint:pic.twitter.com/DhKal1mZp3

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      16. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        Yes, it appears that social factors are almost certainly to blame. If you compare the former/never drinkers with everyone else, they are older, fatter, and poorer

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      17. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        What this means is that there are likely many confounding variables that this observational research did not pick up on, what's known as residual confoundingpic.twitter.com/M1MVWismMY

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
        Show this thread
      18. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        Since this study was a bunched-together analysis of several observational studies, there are always going to be factors that could not be included in the analysis

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      19. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        And, to their credit, the authors acknowledge this cheerfully:pic.twitter.com/2zXvFpgTvs

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      20. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        In fact, the authors recommend caution generally, because of the weird association with heavy drinking that they foundpic.twitter.com/GGz0KivsHv

        1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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      21. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        The other thing to note is that, while the hazard ratios look impressive (50% more heart disease in the non-drinkers!), the absolute risk differences were very small - between 1 and 2 percent

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      22. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        So Moderate drinking isn't good for you This study found a weak and strange association between drinking and a reduced risk of heart disease It is ALMOST CERTAINLY explained by social differences between the groups they looked at

        1 reply 3 retweets 7 likes
        Show this thread
      23. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        What's even worse, the main finding of the study wasn't even about moderate drinking per se. The authors were really looking at whether INCONSISTENT - i.e. heavy/moderate/heavy/light - drinking was problematic And they found that it was

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      24. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        Now, this finding suffers from the same issues as the other ones, but still, that's a really interesting result that deserves further investigation Not at all "Moderate drinking is good for you"

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      25. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        Bottom line: moderate drinking is almost certainly harmful to your health Don't drink to be healthy, because it isn't That's not a great story, but it's the truth

        1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
        Show this thread
      26. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Aug 2018

        Also, as has been pointed out, heavy drinking is DEFINITELY BAD FOR YOU 21+ drinks a week (3+ bottles of wine) is bad, don't do it, get help if you need it to stop

        2 replies 3 retweets 12 likes
        Show this thread
      27. End of conversation

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