Over a 50-year timespan - roughly a career - you'd expect that university graduate to pay ~roughly~ $607,000 in tax The non-uni grad? On average, they pay $422,000
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Replying to @burrititabeats
My example is a pretty rough one, but if you look down the thread there are plenty of more complex models including such confounder-controls that come to very similar conclusions
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Replying to @burrititabeats
It is pretty hard to control for every confounder, but even more conservative models have a strongly positive ROI for investing in university education. There's a point at which the marginal benefit is low, but OECD models indicate we haven't reached that yet
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Replying to @burrititabeats
I'm not arguing that more people in uni would necessarily increase revenue, although I wouldn't be surprised. My main point is that a decrease in uni graduates would almost certainly result in a decrease in revenue
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That's certainly what most models suggest. The conversation article I linked is a decent short read on the topic, the OECD book much more comprehensive but a bit of a slog
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