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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

    Whenever you talk about vaping, you see people quoting a figure: 95%. According to SCIENCE, vaping is 95% better for you than smoking Here's a brief tweetorial on why that's wrongpic.twitter.com/j1RJPDLEZD

    4:41 PM - 11 Jun 2018
    • 19 Retweets
    • 26 Likes
    • Fabien (Il/He) #Pfizer 2/2 💉💉 stephanie ❄️ Gina Alex Denise Dickeson fiona Eduardo Conejeros Liam Ronald John Scarratt MireilleP
    6 replies 19 retweets 26 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        I should say at the outset: vaping is almost certainly less bad for your health than smoking (particularly cigarettes) BUT the 95% figure? The one cited with such authority? Mostly nonsense

        3 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        Let's set the scene. It's quite hard to estimate the health impacts of vaping vs smoking. There are a number of reasons for this, but mostly because lung cancer and COPD take a while to develop and vaping is relatively new

        2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        So, all estimates of how good/bad vaping is come from preliminary research (although this is changing - some great work coming out in the last few years)

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        Now, that being said, let's kick off with the 95% figure. It is UBIQUITOUS. Every single pro-vaping advocate uses it. All. The. Time.pic.twitter.com/QHfwyw1fNh

        3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        Here's the pyramid of evidence. At the top, above all of this, is a review of reviews - meta-research into a specific topic. You'd usually assume that a figure like this would come from research of that calibrepic.twitter.com/xsLL2TEX7W

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        Where do you think the 95% figure comes from?

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        Show this thread
      8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        Perhaps more importantly, what do you think it's based on? When someone says "95% safer", what do you think they are referring to?

        3 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        Show this thread
      9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        Fun fact: the 95% figure, cited EVERYWHERE, is essentially expert opinion If you look back at the hierarchy of evidence, that's right on the bottom

        2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        What actually happened is that in 2014 a group of experts (and health consultants, oddly) got together over 2 days, and scored different nicotine products in terms of harmspic.twitter.com/BDCaImK4l0

        2 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        Show this thread
      11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        A year later, Public Health England affirmed in their report on vaping that there was no evidence to contradict this figure, and started using it broadly

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        And remember, this figure is broadly interpreted as vaping being 95% safer FOR USERS. FOR YOU. Which is, sadly, complete nonsense

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

        You see, this is a trick question. What the group of experts actually considered was all of this and morehttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1006322730852061185 …

        Health Nerd added,

        Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
        Perhaps more importantly, what do you think it's based on? When someone says "95% safer", what do you think they are referring to?
        Show this thread
        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      14. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        They thought about crime, about death, about impairments to life, about cost, societal damage, environmental issues and morepic.twitter.com/Y9O1NqR8Uy

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        When you split this up into societal vs indivudual harm, a good 33% of that 95% is harm TO SOCIETYpic.twitter.com/N4QZGIlsc1

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      16. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        So, BY THE STUDY THAT THE FIGURE IS BASED ON, we are now down to "vaping is likely 60% safer than smoking cigarettes" But wait, there's more

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      17. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        If you look here, you'll notice that smoking cigarettes is the most harmful, but other forms of tobacco are MUCH lower This is because of the various fields that the group includedpic.twitter.com/Wzqe7WtIaY

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      18. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        So, again FROM THE STUDY THE 95% FIGURE CAME FROM, it's also possible to say that cigars are 85% safer than cigarettes. That chewing tobacco is 90% safer. That smoking a pipe is still 80% safer! This is ~clearly nonsense~

        4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      19. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        The point is that these figures are not about harms TO YOU. They are talking about harms more generally - fair for a public health organisation, but very misleading for individuals

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      20. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        It's also worth noting that, again BASED ON THIS STUDY, there are a number of options that are actually BETTER THAN VAPINGpic.twitter.com/TJCmjAa3GT

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      21. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        There's also emerging evidence that vaping might not be the silver bullet for smoking cessation many people want it to be i.e. https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/2123/18240/3/Missing%20Elephant_in_room.pdf …

        3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      22. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        So, the "95% safer" figure is: a) based on the lowest quality of evidence b) NOT about individual harms c) a bit outdated d) doesn't put vaping at the top anyway

        1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
        Show this thread
      23. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        To sum up: vaping is almost certainly better for your health than smoking cigarettes How much? No one really knows What we do know is that the "95% safer" figure is both wildly misleading and not based on good evidence

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        Show this thread
      24. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        Even based on the original study providing the 95% safer figure, cigars score almost as well as vaping! It is an interesting hypothesis, nothing more

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      25. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Jun 2018

        Vaping is less bad for you than smoking cigarettes. How big this difference is is very hotly debated. Is vaping harmless? Is it like comparing Coke to Diet Coke? Is it like comparing Coke to fruit juice? We just aren't really sure what the answer is yet

        3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        Show this thread
      26. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Jun 2018

        P.S. Several people have raised this as an issue, so I'll add on - VAPING IS DEFINITELY SAFER THAN SMOKING The question is how much, how you quantify that, and how we actually got the 95% figure

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      27. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Jun 2018

        P.P.S Yes, I'm aware that there has been further research on vaping (including systematic reviews etc). The point is that this research is mostly preliminary, and the 95% figure was essentially taken for convenience's sake as the best guess. Except, it wasn't really a great guess

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        Show this thread
      28. End of conversation

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