There's been a lot of controversy about drug sniffing dogs. Here's why they are totally useless as an intervention (thread)
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Replying to @GidMK
Good thread. The maths of screening tests is a really useful piece of public policy knowledge that no-one knows. (See also airport security...)
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Replying to @timsenior
Thanks! I got my terminology a bit mixed up, but it is a really important thing. I think sniffer dogs are different to airports tho, if only because the consequences can be far more dire
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Replying to @GidMK
That's true. It's why it's never pure maths, but the values we attach to outcomes too. Very rare, but seriously bad outcome!
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And it's also important to remember that the rarity of the outcome is vital! If you're testing for something ubiquitous, your test can be bad. If it's only 1 in 10 or 1 in 100, your test has to be MUCH better
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