For any new group activity, only about 10% of people who originally expressed interest and participated in negotiations over setup will eventually participate. Everyone else is only there to make sure they don't miss out on something truly valuable, but your thing is not it.
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modulo when things have several-months-long start and require a lot of prep
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Yeah. Depending on the thing, possibly good to design it in such a way to get people to filter themselves out over the course of those months, but can rough to make that work.
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