"employers unleashed an unexpected burst of hiring in January, adding 517,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis" Such vivid writing in Jan makes me chuckle. probably knows that, before seasonal adjustment, jobs DECLINED by 2.5 million.
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Gene Epstein
@GeneSohoForum
Director and Moderator of , presented by . Former Economics & Books Editor at Barron's.
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Tx On Sale for Our Soho Forum Debate! will take the affirmative & the negative, on the resolution: "The break-up of the US into different regions is a workable option likely to bring a marked improvement in human affairs."
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2)Seasonally adjusted (SA) Jan job surge of 517K makes me uneasy: Not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) Jan plummets. Recent Jans:
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2023 +517K -2.505 mm
2022 +364 -2.808
2021 +494 -2.630
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1)Today's data were catnip to forecasters who doubt there'll be a 2023 recession. I hope they prove right, but still can't share their outlook. But grant that Jan ISM services/manufacturing composite bounced back to an expansionary 54.4 (red line, gray=recession). But also...1/2
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Ayn Rand, b. 118 yrs ago today, was a refugee from Bolshevism. Told that I'm selfish unless I serve the state, I too might've shouted from the rooftops that selfishness is a virtue. But selfishness isn't a virtue, as I argued in this debate w/.
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Is the Economy Screwing Young People? On his podcast, has me do a tour of all the available data on how young people (aged 20-35) have been doing in this economy relative to the way young folks used to do. Tune in for my surprising findings!
tomwoods.com/ep-2275-is-the
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An example of 's "line test:" Guess where on the time-line gov't got involved. In this case, the fed's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration was formed in 1970, long after most of the improvement had occurred. Yet many credit post-1970 improvement to gov't.
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One underrated area of progress:
Cars are so much safer than they used to be
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"All of these were scientific mistakes At The Time, not in hindsight. Amazingly, some of these obfuscations continue to the present day." is a person of courage & character. Bravo, editors , for publishing this must-read.
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My op-ed for @Newsweek
It's Time for the Scientific Community to Admit We Were Wrong About COIVD and It Cost Lives
newsweek.com/its-time-scien
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I was privileged to moderate the Soho Forum's historic clash of views between George Mason U Econ Prof & Columbia U Econ Prof Frederick Mishkin, also a former Fed governor, on ending the Fed --now available on both You Tube & podcast.
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"I loved Barnes & Noble, increasingly seen as an ally, rather than the enemy, of indie booksellers." Nice piece by , b. in 1984, made me chuckle. B. in 1944, I can tell him B&N was hated in NY City as the bully that did drive many indies under.
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Hurricanes in 2022 were unprecedented — as in 𝘂𝗻𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝗸
Globally, 2022 had the 2nd weakest hurricanes in the satellite era (1980-2022)
Did you see that reported anywhere?
tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index
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Thanks to for his clear dissection of the gasp-provoking claim on materials required by the green revolution (Ep #28 of his superb podcast, "The Last Optimist")--the very reason why it can't happen. W/o even trying, Mark manages to make the discussion entertaining.
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A genuinely silly and misleading ‘study’ — of course there are enough. The issue is who mines it, when, and at what environmental & social cost abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/s
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We'll start at 12:30 w/a screening of Prof. defending the resolution to end the Federal Reserve, against Columbia Univ Prof Frederic Mishkin. At 2:00 pm, Prof White will arrive to answer questions about the debate & we'll conclude at 4:00.
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2)....in a peace demonstration. It was organized to voice the growing opposition among returning servicemen & women to the still-raging war in Indochina & grew rapidly to a membership of over 30,000 thru-out the US as well as GIs stationed in Vietnam." vvaw.org/about/ 2/2
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1)I recall, in demonstrating against the Vietnam War, encountering Vietnam Veterans Against the War, which this opinion piece should have mentioned: "VVAW is a national veterans' organization founded in 1967 after 6 Vietnam vets marched together...1/2
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Excellent debate last night on the need for a central bank. + Jersey's own vs. + former gov Frederic Mishkin, moderates.
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"in the consumer-driven U.S. economy, a recession is all but impossible as long as households keep opening their wallets." No: , please note that, in the calendar quarter preceding each of the past 5 recessions, real consumer spending rose.
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No Recession, But Stagflation: This chart tracks the % change in real gross domestic product from the same quarter a year ago. 4th quarter 2022 real GDP was just 1% above Q4 real GDP in 2021, quite sluggish growth--& stagflation when combined w/high rate of price inflation.
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Last chance for tickets for Soho Forum debate tomorrow (Thursday)! : "Replacing the Federal Reserve with free-market institutions would significantly improve the economy's money, banking & financial systems." Frederic Mishkin opposed.
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"Navasky applied his leftist outlook in one corner of his personal life — his vacation home." The explanation: "He & friends bought a 130-acre property & divvied it up among 13 people." As a capitalist I say, if that's "leftist," let's make the most of it!
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3 generations of Epsteins (Harry, Jim, Gene), celebrate the dual birthdays yesterday eve of & Gene's wife (sitting across the table, w/Gene's dear daughter-in-law Elizabeth).
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3)Like Son, Like Father? Similar photo taken of me w/my own father, Lou Epstein, when I was about the same age Jim is now (& also unshaven)! 3/3
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2)Jim & me taken about a year ago at Dinosaur restaurant in Brooklyn. 2/3
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1)January 23: important day for me, since it's the birthday of BOTH my son & my wife (Jim's stepmom) . See photos of me w/Hisako, me w/Jim & as an added bonus, a similar photo Jim sent me of me w/my own father. (What's Hisako thinking as I bloviate??) 1/3
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Whoops, I meant to write (of course) that the US unemployment rate has been noticeably LOWER [omitted word!] than the overall rate for the 27 nations in the European Union....
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The "Scandinavian Model" & Unemployment: Except briefly in the past 2 recessions, US unemployment rate has been noticeably than the overall rate for the 27 nations in the European Union (chart), which includes ALL nations applying this model (Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal...)
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2)Union representation in the public sector also hit a new low in 2022--at 33.1%, down from a peak of 38.7% in 1994 (chart). There are many reasons for the downtrend, but it does throw doubt on the idea of a widespread surge in labor militancy.
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1)New Lows for Union Representation: Despite talk of increased labor-union gains, the Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported that in 2022, private sector union representation ticked down to a new low of 6.0%, down from 16.8% in 1983 (chart). As for the pubic sector...1/2
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If the Federal Reserve is abolished, what then? George Mason Univ econ prof will be answering that question. In opposition: Columbia Univ econ prof Frederic Mishkin, former member of the Fed Board of Governors. After-party at our place.
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Edgar Allan Poe, b. 214 yrs ago today, put a few morbid phrases permanently in my consciousness--like "a sense of insufferable gloom pervaded my spirit." (From "The Fall of the House of Usher.") But while important to be aware of that gloom, all the more important to cope w/it.
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. & skewer Sam H's illogical lunacies to the point of hilarity. But if, as Sam suggests, children were mainly dying of Covid, then Focused Protection a la the Great Barrington Declaration (urged by ) would be even more compelling.
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"Analysts are warning that a perennial source of partisan brinkmanship could finally tip into outright catastrophe." Needless to say, those of us who've urged that the runaway debt be curbed can think of more orderly ways than this gov't insanity.
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Who knew?!
"The specific type of diversity training currently in vogue — mandatory trainings that blame dominant groups for D.E.I. [diversity, equity & inclusion] problems — may well have a net-negative effect on the outcomes managers claim to care about."
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"Maybe it started with The New York Times' 1619 Project, which provoked a right-wing backlash." Was it only right-wing backlashers who took exception to the 1619 Project? Hardly. Try ' carefully researched, "The 1619 Project: A Critique."
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2)About a week after @proffwolff I debated, he delivered this bizarre 10-minute talk about what transpired between us. I've offered a lifetime pass to Soho Forum events to anyone who can verify a single thing that Rick Wolff recalls! So far, no takers. youtu.be/THwqz5dTzkA?t= 2/2
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1)My Nov 2019 Soho Forum debate on socialism w/prominent Marxist Richard Wolff has just surpassed 5.5 million YouTube views. I'm sure Rick Wolff joins me in feeling gratified that our exchange of views has gotten so much attention. Also...1/2
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2)From Prof Hankins' WSJ op-ed: "Anyone who follows the debates of the libertarian Soho Forum knows that even in the Democratic stronghold of New York City it is possible to shift public opinion from radical progressive orthodoxy so long as viewpoint diversity is maintained." 2/2
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1)A refreshing proposal from Harvard history Prof James Hankins that the House sponsor Oxford-style debates on issues of importance. Special thanks to Prof Hankins (whom I've never met) for citing my debate society, the Soho Forum, as an exemplar...1/2
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I was pleased to speak at this anti-war protest (my first in many years). We need a ceasefire & negotiated peace in Ukraine to end the pointless slaughter--& our gov't has the power to make it happen.
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@DianeSare, @GeneSohoForum and I spoke at the "Not One More" Anti-War Protest in front of the UN in NYC today. It was organized by @YALiberty. Thank you for all who came.
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Should the Fed be abolished? What would we replace it with? will bear the burden of explaining this, w/former member of the Fed Board of Governors Frederic Mishkin arguing the other side. Also see details for first ever Soho Forum Salon.
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