Gavin Baker

@GavinSBaker

Husband, Becky Painter. CIO, Atreides Management. Former PM, Fidelity OTC fund. No investment advice, views all my own.

Boston, MA
Vrijeme pridruživanja: srpanj 2011.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    26. stu 2019.

    Honored and humbled to have been a guest on this podcast from which I have learned so much. is fantastic and a superb interviewer. Highly recommend that tech CEO/founders consider going on the podcast, which seems to be a new area of focus for .

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  2. 2. velj

    12) Haven’t thought about LGF in years - thinking about “Wheel of Time” made me remember. Amazing that it has essentially round tripped! Also curious to hear if anyone thinks another fantasy/sci-fi series in development for streaming has more potential than “Wheel of Time?”

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  3. 2. velj

    11) Lionsgate then went up 3x in 3 years based on the Hunger Games. So being a super nerd really can generate alpha from time to time. Although I did owe it all to my friend who had also read the books and knew that Lionsgate was making the movies.

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  4. 2. velj

    10) The PM who told me about the Hunger Games, another friend and I took down the overwhelming majority of the Icahn block right around $7. I am reasonably confident that Icahn had not read the “Hunger Games,” but one never knows.

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  5. 2. velj

    9) I thought this would be the next Harry Potter and it was easy to value it at 75% to 150% of the entire market cap of Lionsgate at the time. I had seen Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone” and knew she was a super talented actress who was well cast as Katniss Everdeen.

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  6. 2. velj

    8) I wasn’t interested until a similarly nerdy PM friend came by a few mins after the block went up. He told me that Lionsgate was making a series of movies based on “The Hunger Games,” which he knew I had read and loved.

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  7. 2. velj

    7) In 2011, Icahn had an activist position in Lionsgate. He eventually got frustrated and sold his entire stake via a block (or maybe more than one; I can’t remember) after reaching a settlement with the company.

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  8. 2. velj

    6) Re: Carl Icahn, the “Hunger Games” and alpha from nerdiness (or any sort of Peter Lynch personal knowledge). Even if “Wheel of Time” is a massive success it is unlikely to move the needle for Amazon at $1 trillionish in market cap. But sometimes these insights can matter

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  9. 2. velj

    5) But still moments of awesomeness. The sword fight between Rand and the Seanchan blademaster Turak Aladon at the end of the first book might be the greatest fight scene in any fantasy novel. “Let us see what it takes to earn the heron on this side of the ocean.”

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  10. 2. velj

    4) For anyone tempted, it is roughly 15k pages, the author died before finishing the series himself and the series really dips in the middle. Brandon Sanderson was brought in to finish the series and did a solid job. Writing style more David Eddings than GRRM.

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  11. 2. velj

    3) To the best of my knowledge, “Wheel of Time” had dramatically outsold “Game of Thrones” until the HBO series took GoT to a new level. Really think the show could be huge: deep, richly imagined world with great characters and thousands of years of history, mystery, etc.

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  12. 2. velj

    2) I started rereading Game of Thrones, i.e. “A Song of Ice and Fire,” from the beginning every time a new book came out starting in 1999 with “Clash of Kings.” The “Wheel of Time” novels are even longer and I read the first book seven times as a result of the same process.

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  13. 2. velj

    1) Secretly hoping that there will be a short “Wheel of Time” ad during the Super Bowl. If well done, high confidence that this will be much bigger than the “Witcher” and the first true must see TV on Prime Video. Also a story about nerd alpha, Carl Icahn and the Hunger Games.

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  14. 2. velj

    15) AR becoming a widespread reality in the next few years is the biggest risk to Microsoft using the Xbox as the winning foundation for its Metaverse platform. The current dominant smartphone OS’s have already won in an AR first Metaverse.

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  15. 2. velj

    14) Given that all major platforms are positioning themselves for the Metaverse, it would be ironic if Microsoft “won” the coming platform shift to the Metaverse based on the Xbox which Wall Street wanted spun off only several years ago.

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  16. 2. velj

    13) Near term, streaming is primarily pressuring platform take rates by expanding distribution options for publishers to their benefit. Mixing subsides/Gamepass/XCloud *might* pull a streaming reality forward and advantage Microsoft in this reality.

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  17. 2. velj

    12) Irrespective of any Xbox business model shift to subscriptions that may include XCloud, I remain optimistic about streaming over the next 2-3 years. I do think controllers like the Razer Kishi are the “unlock” for streaming:

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  18. 2. velj

    11) As noted the ultimate goal is eliminate all barriers to entry to gaming; for consumers to be able to play all Xbox and PC games anywhere on any device at any time and Microsoft to get a cut of all the ensuing revenue. Engagement always drives monetization.

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  19. 2. velj

    10) Already beginning to happen with Gamepass subscribers up over 100% in the December quarter. Could bundle in XCloud for an upcharge, but marginal costs for streaming are real so this will take time.

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  20. 2. velj

    9) And it’s the ultimate trump card for Microsoft vs. the PlayStation which would find it difficult to compete with this offer on every level: financially, technologically, etc. Also helps head off streaming based Xbox competitors like Stadia who currently lack content.

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  21. 2. velj

    8) Despite some inevitable consternation, I think publishers would make significantly more money over time with a subscription/F2P based model. *All* of the world’s largest games by revenue are F2P. And subscription/F2P revenue is capitalized at a higher multiple

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