Whatever reasoning there is (common sense or otherwise), especially in account of novelty, is grounded in relations between different contents of consciousness. Solving consciousness is therefore causally linked 
... To solving AGI.
Causal reasoning, my 6-year old son just now, commenting on a video: "i don't think it makes sense for a pony with no wings to fly in midair"
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That's why I like to place myself in that reference frame of having "solved" AGI, to role play working conditions, and find a path from there to reach where we are today.
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My 7-year old granddaughter, hearing the lyrics of the song "When my sugar walks down the street, the little birdies go tweet tweet tweet.." - "That's NOT TRUE!"
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What is the role of fiction in the development of causal reasoning? Fiction as understanding how it could have been otherwise.
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A Child develops probability and expected value intuitively prior to formal education from everyday experience. Source : https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=7147633975514525031&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&sciodt=0,5#d=gs_qabs&u=%23p%3DZ20OHzt_MWMJ …
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He’ll never be a politician!
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Some objects fly with no wings flying though (Pony-shaped) balloons, rockets, etc. Intuitions can be catastrophically wrong. Reminds me of the backlash against Robert Goddard (Rocket in vacuum), or Marilyn Vos Savant (Monty Hall). https://www.airspacemag.com/space/the-misunderstood-professor-26066829/ … https://priceonomics.com/the-time-everyone-corrected-the-worlds-smartest/ …
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It's all those little symbolic priors about flying and wings doing what they do best, eh Marcus?
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