2016: @GeoffreyHinton says we should stop training radiologists, because radiologists will soon be replaced by deep learning
2019: There is a shortage of radiologists. # replaced ≈ 0
What did Hinton miss?
by @garymarcus & @MaxALittlehttps://www.statnews.com/2019/10/23/advancing-ai-health-care-trust/ …
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Further, his subsequent remark, one minute later, after “it might be 10 years” was that “anyway, we’ve got plenty of radiologists”. How does having a good supply of radiologists fit into your interpretation? If they’ll be replaced in a few years why would that matter?
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I’m not concerned with whether Hinton was right about the # of radiologists in 2016, and he made no prediction about the # in 2019. But his comment only makes sense if he was making a long term prediction: we have enough rads already trained to hold us until AI takes over.
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1) We (the world) don’t have enough rads (almost every country other than US has a shortage). 2) AI (DL) is never ‘taking over’ (at least until there are breakthroughs in reasoning, logic and contextual awareness).
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