@simplic10 @semiotechnic I distinguished earlier between ordinal and cardinal likelihood. Compare to utility theory. To say u(X) > u(Y)...
@St_Rev @simplic10 @Meaningness @semiotechnic true if you mean "do probability theory explicitly", not "hold it up as a normative standard"
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@tipsfromkatee@St_Rev@simplic10@semiotechnic Taking probability normatively in situations where it doesn’t apply seems wishful thinking. -
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@tipsfromkatee@St_Rev@simplic10@semiotechnic It’s another instance of wrong-way reduction.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@tipsfromkatee@St_Rev@simplic10@semiotechnic “If only we could do probability theory here, our problem would be solved.”Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@tipsfromkatee@St_Rev@simplic10@semiotechnic But actually you have to mostly solve the problem before you can apply probability theory.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@tipsfromkatee@St_Rev@simplic10@semiotechnic The real work is getting the situation well-enough characterized to apply math to it.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@tipsfromkatee@St_Rev@simplic10@semiotechnic After that, Bayes is trivial arithmetic. -
@Meaningness@tipsfromkatee@simplic10@semiotechnic More generally, building your decision theory in the image of a universe of oracles...
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