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How quantitative is psychology? (thread)
@deaneckles on how psychological theories predict effect direction but not size, and empirical work stops at null hypothesis testing https://www.deaneckles.com/blog/333_applying-social-psychology/ …
This prevents combining predictions across theories in a coherent picture.pic.twitter.com/uXZg9R09j9
The challenge dates to Newell's curse "you can't play 20 questions with nature and win"
https://mindhacks.com/2015/02/10/you-cant-play-20-questions-with-nature-and-win/ … via @mindhacksblog
In cognitive neuroscience, it appears as the incapacity of unifying psychological processes to model brain-mind relationships in any given situation
These limitations are closely linked to what @talyarkoni called the "Generalizability crisis", pointing to overgeneralization of findings, as studies do not account for stimuli effects and other experimental effects which should be modeled as random.https://psyarxiv.com/jqw35/
@russpoldrack and I proposed that using explicitly-predictive models tuned on data (the machine-learning toolbox) can help addressing this curse, eg giving explicit effect sizes to brain-mind relationships across a variety of psychological manipulations
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959438818301089 …pic.twitter.com/NWOtin9MUA
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