12/ Nasar believed that the most effective way to spread terror was to decentralise it, utilizing countless small groups that can operate without an external chain of command, and which are also isolated from each other, to minimise liabilities and make tracking impossible.
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13/ This idea was a core part of IS's MO, which required it to constantly shift form in order to gain a foothold on foreign countries. Vanguard groups in the West like ALM were most effective acting like a vapour rather than solid, as I describe here:https://medium.com/@G_S_Bhogal/the-three-forms-of-isis-28a7c3998e21 …
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14/ To this end, IS developed Nasar's idea of "leaderless resistance" into "peerless resistance": for terrorist cells to be composed not of small groups but individuals. This would reduce liabilities to a minimum and allow ALM to become as deadly yet insubstantial as poison gas.
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15/ Hence, TriCk and other IS agents discouraged ALM members from organising large-scale plots, and instead persuaded them to carry out lone-wolf attacks. One of many encouraged was a schizophrenic man from my neighbourhood called Junead Khan: https://goo.gl/jku5W7 pic.twitter.com/oawVI8ju1C
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16/ In line with IS's directions to ALM, during 2016 and 2017 we didn't see any plots in the UK on the scale of 7/7. Instead, we saw a dozen small-scale plots using vehicles, knives, and/or homemade explosives, 3 of which proved shockingly effective.
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17/ This is symptomatic of ALM's new MO. It no longer seeks to organise elaborate plots, but rather encourages open source, DIY terrorism, planned entirely inside an individual's mind. This way, there is no plot to be intercepted, merely a tacit, almost telepathic understanding.
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18/ One way it achieves this is through the Tawheed Network, an agitprop group composed of leading members of ALM from Luton & London. They never advocate violence directly, but instead seek to turn people into lone wolves by angering them about western war crimes.
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19/ Here's one of their YT vids by a senior ALM figure who lives in my neighbourhood, Moshiur Rahman. Note the softer tone, which is not just to abide YT guidelines, but also to ease people into action without self-incriminating. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wle-mVwj3TA …
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20/ YT is 1 aspect of IS's online machinery, but it spans multiple online domains (pic A). The Tawheed Network even has its own Instagram, but it frequently switches its focus on domains, creating unpredictable oscillations in activity that make it harder to track (pic B).pic.twitter.com/88jPrcqpjq
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21/ On a positive note, I hear Rahman & co are having doubts about IS. They've seen how its unbridled brutality turned the whole world against it, and are now reconsidering whether an uncompromisingly savage approach isn't alienating the Ummah (global Muslim community).
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22/ It's uncertain what impact this apparent softening will have, since several particularly vehement & influential Qutbis like Anjem Choudary & Saif al-Islam will be released from jail in the next few years. Prison has a long-established habit of making extremists extremer...
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23/ So, in conclusion, it's unlikely we'll see many large scale jihadi bomb plots in the near future. What we will see is more frustratingly vaporous behaviour - isolated knifings and vehicular rampages, spurred on by the agitprop of the Tawheed Network and other ALM offshoots.
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24/ Some people believe it’s impossible to stop decentralised terror given that the conspiracy takes place largely within an individual's mind. However, I have a plan, a new way to approach the problem. I will share it with you in an upcoming issue of the Humanist, so stay tuned.
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