1/ Since it's been a while, I thought I'd give an update on the status of jihadism in the UK. Thread.
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6/ This group has passed through 3 phases. Prior to 2000, it was an asset of the UK govt (see my pinned tweet). After 9/11, it was hit with a crackdown and forced underground. Finally, after 2014, its leaders were jailed, and the group dissipated to avoid further prosecutions.
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7/ When ALM chief Anjem Choudary was arrested in 2014, ALM had already declared allegiance to IS, so it wasn't left purposeless. Secret meetings of ~80 jihadis were held in my neighbourhood, hosted by acting ALM leader Saif al-Islam (pic), to determine the best way to serve IS.pic.twitter.com/h1X0DEaehx
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8/ Ideas spitballed at these meetings included detonating bomb-laden trucks on Oxford Street. This kind of blue-sky thinking was the result of the meteoric rise of IS, which made the jihadis believe their time had come, that Allah was with them, and the (7th) sky was the limit.
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9/ Weirdly, it was IS that told ALM to not be so extreme. The original goal of ALM, under the leadership of its extravagant founder Omar Bakri, had been to organize spectacular, large-scale attacks that would make for viral news stories. It'd had some success with this, on 7/7.
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10/ After the ALM hacker Junaid Hussain (aka "TriCk", pictured) became director of CyberCaliphate, IS's online wing, he established an encrypted Telegram/Whatsapp network whereby ALM could receive orders directly from IS. Shortly afterwards, ALM's tactics began to change.pic.twitter.com/nbPD6s9qur
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11/ TriCk's IS emirs (bosses) didn't want ALM to plot large-scale 7/7-style bombings in the UK. Rather, taking inspiration from the Lee Rigby murder, they recommended the approach of "leaderless resistance" advocated by al-Qaeda tactician Mustafa Setmariam Nasar (pictured).pic.twitter.com/8M5aMhCTCJ
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12/ Nasar believed that the most effective way to spread terror was to decentralise it, utilizing countless small groups that can operate without an external chain of command, and which are also isolated from each other, to minimise liabilities and make tracking impossible.
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13/ This idea was a core part of IS's MO, which required it to constantly shift form in order to gain a foothold on foreign countries. Vanguard groups in the West like ALM were most effective acting like a vapour rather than solid, as I describe here:https://medium.com/@G_S_Bhogal/the-three-forms-of-isis-28a7c3998e21 …
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14/ To this end, IS developed Nasar's idea of "leaderless resistance" into "peerless resistance": for terrorist cells to be composed not of small groups but individuals. This would reduce liabilities to a minimum and allow ALM to become as deadly yet insubstantial as poison gas.
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15/ Hence, TriCk and other IS agents discouraged ALM members from organising large-scale plots, and instead persuaded them to carry out lone-wolf attacks. One of many encouraged was a schizophrenic man from my neighbourhood called Junead Khan: https://goo.gl/jku5W7 pic.twitter.com/oawVI8ju1C
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16/ In line with IS's directions to ALM, during 2016 and 2017 we didn't see any plots in the UK on the scale of 7/7. Instead, we saw a dozen small-scale plots using vehicles, knives, and/or homemade explosives, 3 of which proved shockingly effective.
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17/ This is symptomatic of ALM's new MO. It no longer seeks to organise elaborate plots, but rather encourages open source, DIY terrorism, planned entirely inside an individual's mind. This way, there is no plot to be intercepted, merely a tacit, almost telepathic understanding.
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18/ One way it achieves this is through the Tawheed Network, an agitprop group composed of leading members of ALM from Luton & London. They never advocate violence directly, but instead seek to turn people into lone wolves by angering them about western war crimes.
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19/ Here's one of their YT vids by a senior ALM figure who lives in my neighbourhood, Moshiur Rahman. Note the softer tone, which is not just to abide YT guidelines, but also to ease people into action without self-incriminating. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wle-mVwj3TA …
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20/ YT is 1 aspect of IS's online machinery, but it spans multiple online domains (pic A). The Tawheed Network even has its own Instagram, but it frequently switches its focus on domains, creating unpredictable oscillations in activity that make it harder to track (pic B).pic.twitter.com/88jPrcqpjq
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21/ On a positive note, I hear Rahman & co are having doubts about IS. They've seen how its unbridled brutality turned the whole world against it, and are now reconsidering whether an uncompromisingly savage approach isn't alienating the Ummah (global Muslim community).
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22/ It's uncertain what impact this apparent softening will have, since several particularly vehement & influential Qutbis like Anjem Choudary & Saif al-Islam will be released from jail in the next few years. Prison has a long-established habit of making extremists extremer...
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23/ So, in conclusion, it's unlikely we'll see many large scale jihadi bomb plots in the near future. What we will see is more frustratingly vaporous behaviour - isolated knifings and vehicular rampages, spurred on by the agitprop of the Tawheed Network and other ALM offshoots.
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24/ Some people believe it’s impossible to stop decentralised terror given that the conspiracy takes place largely within an individual's mind. However, I have a plan, a new way to approach the problem. I will share it with you in an upcoming issue of the Humanist, so stay tuned.
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