Perhaps humanity’s greatest extinction risk is not climate change or rogue AI, but people losing interest in procreation due to finding fulfilment in the endless phantasmagoria of technogenic distractions.
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Replying to @G_S_Bhogal
Maybe long-term, but will require not going extinct in short-term.pic.twitter.com/r1c75VSdIU
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Replying to @ticobas
The UN median projection seems to heavily exaggerate population growth when considered next to the latest findings: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46118103 …
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Replying to @G_S_Bhogal
Not sure we can conclude that? Seems the authors of that Lancet study haven't attempted to estimate / revise global population growth based on their data against these two projections. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32278-5/fulltext …
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Replying to @ticobas
The fertility rate required to maintain a stable population is around 2.3. We're near that number already, and if the declining trend continues, we'll soon fall short of it.
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Replying to @G_S_Bhogal
2.3 is higher than replacement value, that Lancet article puts it at 2.05 with added caveat that global population can continue to grow even if total fert. rate is below replacement value.pic.twitter.com/AFGqDr5MMq
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Replying to @ticobas
The replacement value varies greatly between developed and developing countries. For some reason Lancet has given the standard average rate for developed countries. The last comprehensive study of this, in 2003, found a global average of 2.33.https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FB%3APOPU.0000020882.29684.8e …
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In any case, even if we assume a rate of 2.05, then, following current trends, it's only a matter of time before fertility falls below replacement rates, and it could be a lot sooner than 2050. Time will tell.
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