We can never really know if an outcome is good or bad, because outcomes never end.
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But what if not throwing myself into the shark tank meant that I would have later discovered that my wife was cheating on me, then lost my job, then been kidnapped by a serial killer who slowly raped and mutilated me to death over a period of 40 days.
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That's not what false dilemma means. In any case, my point is that you couldn't prove that such a sequence of events wouldn't happen. Therefore you cannot authoritatively declare that not jumping into a shark tank would always be a good outcome.
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A false dilemma is when a statement is presented as only ever involving two choices. I didn't say there are only ever two choices. I presented a single possible scenario as a Popperian Black Swan to your assertion that not jumping into a shark tank would always be "good".
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Replying to @G_S_Bhogal
As for your second sentence, that is a complete non-sequitur to what I said.
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Bear in mind that I'm talking about being certain that something is good, not suspecting it is good. hence why I used the words "never really know". I suspect jumping into a shark tank would be bad, but I cannot be sure it would be better than not jumping into one at that moment.
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