Just like black has become black, brown, beige, you'll have more categories: male, female, intersex (# of birth sex assignments will go down), and of course the various transsexuals, helped by ever-improving body technologies (better hormones, maybe functioning penises, ovaries)
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Thus it'll still matter socially but ever less in official law. Racial segregation is over as policy in the US, but Black neighborhoods and schools still exist (how many German and Irish areas does the US still have?). Likewise, sex will wither from official law & doctrine
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But it will still exist. Again, US-wise, interracial marriage is allowed, but interracial relationships is still a topic (is dating non-Italians an issue for Italian-Americans?). "Man/Male" might gradually disappear from law and become a controversial term as in "negro"
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Today's males-at-birth would be referred to as "guys", "dudes" in everyday parlance, and there would be some euphemisms for official use. Politicians (or rather business leaders) would use "guys" and "dudes" to show that they're down-to-earth people, or to get messages through
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There would be constant controversy as to who is a "guy", with debate on the required characteristics, just like people debate whether someone really qualifies as black, latino, white. A large part of the cases would be settled, but the ambiguous ones would increase over time.
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Sex and gender diversity is a real trend, just like racial diversity. There is a countervailing trend to this in identity purity ideologies. Within all movements, people are trying to preserve categories. You have Blasians (Black Asians), but they are often reclaimed as Black
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Fair-skinned children of Latinos and Whites are often claimed to be white. The valid existence of bisexuals is refuted by some homosexuals. Transgender activists are fighting with non-binary activists over the binary; TGs seem torn between diversity promotion & binary adherence
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I think what will happen eventually is that the number of sexual and gender categories will expand all while being formalised, with people clearly assigned to non-overlapping categories. My analogy is Europe in the 20th century: more states than before, with ethnic cleansing
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So back to "sex exists" and "we must preserve women spaces": "women" (as in born-with-a-vagina) spaces will continue to exist, but not officially, just like racially segregated spaces continue to exist. Activists will decry "institutional transphobia" and "transblindness"
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Closed-to-those-without-a-vagina groups will deny transphobia, citing more or less objective reasons for the absence of trans women from their midst: "this is a discussion group for people with periods, not a transphobic 'female group'. We see ourselves as women, not female !"
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I now realise the obvious parallel between anti-cultural appropriation fights: "you didn't grow up and don't live in this culture everyday, quit trying to gain benefit from it !", and trans-exclusionary feminism: "you didn't grow up and don't live in this body everyday, ..."
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