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Conversation

(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten

What I'll be keeping an eye on in upcoming special elections. Started with CA-34 last week and continues with KS-04 this week.

12:59 AM · Apr 9, 2017

Matthew Reichbach

is the lean the same as PVI?

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(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten

Yes and no. Same concept but this weights most recent election 75% & one prior 25%, not evenly. Also is margin, not % of two-way vote.

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Show replies

Would it also help to look at % over/under registration as well

The one person who got the 1948 race right based his analysis on swings in off year and special elections plus some economic indicators.

Yep- Kansas is the super interesting one. Have a great day Harry :)

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I wonder if besides distracting from Russia, Syria was also meant to save some of these special elections.

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Yep.

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