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ForecasterEnten's profile
(((Harry Enten)))
(((Harry Enten)))
(((Harry Enten)))
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@ForecasterEnten

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(((Harry Enten)))Verified account

@ForecasterEnten

Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. http://cnn.it/3A8VJAn 

I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls.
cnn.com/profiles/harry…
Joined April 2010

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    (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 17 Oct 2020

    Early vote trends are not going to tell us who is going to win. (Maybe Ralston exception.) If you are tempted to use early vote/absentee ballot trends to figure out who is the next prez, please stop.https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics/early-voting-analysis/index.html …

    7:16 AM - 17 Oct 2020
    • 482 Retweets
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    • Mr.LP Araya Harrison Emmanuel C. Peace, Love and Soul Doomstress no LISTS but her emails Sappho Faires Mithrandil
    128 replies 482 retweets 1,865 likes
      1. Scarlet Spider 2021‏ @81_eagles 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        Will it give us insight into turnout? Like in the @MonmouthPoll has high turnout and low turnout models.

        0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      2. PittCabe‏ @PittCabe 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        Pretty much all it tells us is alot of people are voting in a Biden plus 10 environment, and that Election Day is the end of the election not the beginning.

        2 replies 1 retweet 78 likes
      3. Kevin‏ @kevin_cracknell 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @PittCabe @ForecasterEnten

        100,000 people voting a day in one Texas county for four days in a row during early voting seems pretty significant.

        2 replies 3 retweets 66 likes
      4. Show replies
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      2. Ferik‏ @On_Politike 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        It actually will if it shows a huge turnout increase ( as it already has with numerous states at 30% or higher of the 2016 vote). Every high turnout model has Biden increasing his lead by a couple of points.

        2 replies 1 retweet 31 likes
      3. Mario Contreras‏ @MarioC_00 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @On_Politike @ForecasterEnten

        But you’d still have to make assumptions for Election Day voting numbers that may or may not happen. Just because we’re already at 30% of prior totals doesn’t preclude a big slowdown for the rest of the voting period.

        2 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Dave Simon‏ @hairyhilarity 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        Indeed. Keep voting like your life depends on it.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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      2. dedc79‏ @de79dc 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        Put it this way, if the EV wasn't materializing as predicted you all would be sounding the alarm for democrats being in trouble.

        1 reply 2 retweets 65 likes
      3. If you didn’t vote for Hillary GFY‏ @Demvoter 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @de79dc

        pic.twitter.com/rT79a59oci

        0 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Andrew DuPont‏ @WordSlingerAD 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        I second the Ralston exception. If there is one state we can get a good idea from, it's NV.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      1. Amzieaa‏ @amzieaa 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        and many of us think that Clinton won the electoral too. there was rigging. and its been proven

        0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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