Why Biden should make a big play in Florida. The polling there isn't bad for him. He's likely ahead by a few. (It's no worse than PA & especially WI.) It's worth a ton of electoral votes. You want diverse geographic/demographic paths, which FL provides.https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/18/politics/florida-2020-analysis/index.html …
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The big asterisk here is what happened in 2018... though I think there's at least a pretty decent argument to make that FL compared to the MI/PA/WI saw a much less pro-Dem electorate in 2018... which could resolve itself in a prez year.
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Calculate mathematical effect of seniors dying of covid19 in Florida and how it Impacts the vote
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Harry, Democrats always underperform their polling. Just look at Trump/Clinton and DeSantis/Gillum. Why would you put any stock in Biden's Florida polling after those two glaring examples from the last three years?
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Obama outperformed his polling by a lot.
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I think a lot of Dems threw their hands up with Florida after DeSantis and Scott won statewide races in a blue wave year. But, yeah, it’s definitely in play.
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Contra data point: FL was probably the one state in ‘18 where the GOP vote didn’t budge despite the Blue Wave
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If Democrats can register a lot of voters in FL, they definitely have a chance of carrying the state.
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Florida being 8 or so points more R leaning than the country in 2018 continues to seem utterly bizarre but it essentially had the same results in 2014 GOP wave and 2018 Dem wave. Is it just really inelastic for some reason?
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I guess it’s just got very few few of those well-educated suburbanites that makes states like Iowa so elastic
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Technically Biden has won the general election in Florida twice already.....
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