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ForecasterEnten's profile
(((Harry Enten)))
(((Harry Enten)))
(((Harry Enten)))
Verified account
@ForecasterEnten

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(((Harry Enten)))Verified account

@ForecasterEnten

Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. http://cnn.it/3A8VJAn 

I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls.
cnn.com/profiles/harry…
Joined April 2010

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    1. (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 18 Apr 2020

      Why Biden should make a big play in Florida. The polling there isn't bad for him. He's likely ahead by a few. (It's no worse than PA & especially WI.) It's worth a ton of electoral votes. You want diverse geographic/demographic paths, which FL provides.https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/18/politics/florida-2020-analysis/index.html …

      63 replies 246 retweets 980 likes
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      (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 18 Apr 2020

      Two other pts... 1. If we believe seniors are more Dem leaning than in 16 (which polling suggests), FL would be a place you'd see it. 2. People do remember FL was less than 0.5 pts more Trump leaning in 16 than PA and WI, right?

      8:31 AM - 18 Apr 2020
      • 38 Retweets
      • 259 Likes
      • CraigAlphusAndrewSmith Beth Bois de L'Est 😺🏳️‍🌈🇬🇧🇺🇸🇫🇷🇪🇺🕷️😷 TeD Sofia_Kovalevskaya Paul Marr US Constituti*nal Order Is A Social Construct 👁 Vinay Gorur Jamiel Pauling Rob Ford
      11 replies 38 retweets 259 likes
        1. (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 18 Apr 2020

          The big asterisk here is what happened in 2018... though I think there's at least a pretty decent argument to make that FL compared to the MI/PA/WI saw a much less pro-Dem electorate in 2018... which could resolve itself in a prez year.

          22 replies 20 retweets 152 likes
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        1. cestlavieinus‏ @cestlavieinus 18 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ForecasterEnten

          Calculate mathematical effect of seniors dying of covid19 in Florida and how it Impacts the vote

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Ian Lazaran‏ @IanLazaran 18 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ForecasterEnten

          Harry, Democrats always underperform their polling. Just look at Trump/Clinton and DeSantis/Gillum. Why would you put any stock in Biden's Florida polling after those two glaring examples from the last three years?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. ARoby‏ @y2roby 18 Apr 2020
          Replying to @IanLazaran @ForecasterEnten

          Obama outperformed his polling by a lot.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. ictls1515‏ @ictls1515 18 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ForecasterEnten

          I think a lot of Dems threw their hands up with Florida after DeSantis and Scott won statewide races in a blue wave year. But, yeah, it’s definitely in play.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. CTIronman‏ @CTIronman 18 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ForecasterEnten

          Contra data point: FL was probably the one state in ‘18 where the GOP vote didn’t budge despite the Blue Wave

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Amy Fried‏ @ASFried 18 Apr 2020
          Replying to @CTIronman @ForecasterEnten

          If Democrats can register a lot of voters in FL, they definitely have a chance of carrying the state.

          1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. Daniel Markovits‏ @markovitisb 18 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ForecasterEnten

          Florida being 8 or so points more R leaning than the country in 2018 continues to seem utterly bizarre but it essentially had the same results in 2014 GOP wave and 2018 Dem wave. Is it just really inelastic for some reason?

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Riggs Markham‏ @RiggsMarkham 18 Apr 2020
          Replying to @markovitisb @ForecasterEnten

          I guess it’s just got very few few of those well-educated suburbanites that makes states like Iowa so elastic

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Avram Fechter‏ @afechter 18 Apr 2020
          Replying to @ForecasterEnten

          Technically Biden has won the general election in Florida twice already.....@steveschale

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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