Reallocation is good news for them... Among those who don't have a 1st choice or whose top choice is one of top 4... Over 50% are actively considering Biden/Buttigieg. Only around 40% are actively considering Sanders/Warren.
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That's 32% of the electorate that would likely gonna have their votes reallocated... And among them, Biden/Buttigieg are being considered by more than Sanders/Warren.
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get those hits Harry
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Yeah, but if you are polling at 15% odds you miss the threshold in a lot of places is very high. If they hit the threshold everywhere yeah, Biden and Pete stand to gain. But they have to be polling at 20%+ not to go under it in a whole bunch of places.
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Under 15% groups can combine, they don’t automatically have to go to an over 15% group.
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Makes sense. Klobuchar voters will go mostly to Biden if she doesn't hit 15% in a precinct. With 24 days until the caucus, she still has time to surge. Pete rose quickly, so can Amy
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Not so sure about that Klobuchar - Biden vote unless we get data to back it up. I could see it splitting between Biden, Warren and Pete equally.
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Only 20% That is some lead.
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