Generally what the best guesstimate in Iowa tells us now is that Buttigieg, Biden & Sanders right at around 20% (give or take). Warren is closer to 15%. But much of that belief comes from assumptions/polling that may not hold... 1/?
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There hasn't been a live-interview/cell calling poll in IA in 1.5 months. So the averages are reliant on a few polls that don't do this / plenty of older data. Or in the 538 case, getting an assist from national trends... Both methods show similar pictures. 2/?
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One other thing to realize is that given the volatility of the IA electorate, the lead any candidate had now could easily go poof by the time of the caucuses anyway. Primary polling is TOUGH.
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I have one quibble. Top-tier. There will be five candidates on the debate stage. There’s one tier now. We can argue 1-5, I guess. But for intents and purposes we’re down to the final five.
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Is this why CNN used a 5 week old Iowa poll to misrepresent the state of the race?
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Because there aren’t any recent ones. Relax.
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