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ForecasterEnten's profile
(((Harry Enten)))
(((Harry Enten)))
(((Harry Enten)))
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@ForecasterEnten

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(((Harry Enten)))Verified account

@ForecasterEnten

Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. http://cnn.it/3A8VJAn 

I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls.
cnn.com/profiles/harry…
Joined April 2010

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    (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 3 Sep 2019

    The chance of Biden winning the nomination without winning in IA or NH is not very large. He'd almost certainly need to come in second in at least one of those states... I'd argue a candidacy built in part around electability would be especially vulnerable to an early loss.

    11:22 AM - 3 Sep 2019
    • 21 Retweets
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    14 replies 21 retweets 227 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Amy Walter‏Verified account @amyewalter 3 Sep 2019
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        Bigger problem for Biden to lose both or for Sanders to lose both? I agree that this would be really, really bad for Biden. But, seems campaign-ending bad for Sanders.

        7 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
      3. Nicholas Richardson‏ @Slicknickshady 3 Sep 2019
        Replying to @amyewalter @ForecasterEnten

        Yeah especially cause Biden will make up whatever delegates he loses by winning South Carolina in a landslide.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Nicholas Richardson‏ @Slicknickshady 3 Sep 2019
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        But he can lose those and win South Carolina in a landslide and make up the delegates. 😂

        0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
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      2. Quigs‏ @Quigs8816 3 Sep 2019

        I could easily see Warren taking Iowa and Sanders winning New Hampshire. Biden is relying on a similar strategy to Clinton in 2016..push past the first few states and rack up wins in the South.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. I, Vermectin.  🦀‏ @engelr412 3 Sep 2019
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        PREDICTIONS, LET'S HAVE EM. I'm guessing IA=Warren, NH=Sanders, SC=Biden, NV=Warren.

        3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Quigs‏ @Quigs8816 3 Sep 2019
        Replying to @engelr412 @ForecasterEnten

        I agree with the first 3. Not sure on NV.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Collin Reid‏ @CREID2852 3 Sep 2019
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        Could be wrong with the D Primary polls don't move a lot here and the timing of early 4 vs. Super Tuesday is only 30 days that limits the impact of Iowa and New Hampshire. And yea if Biden loses big (third place) both IA and NH will be a problem.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Collin Reid‏ @CREID2852 3 Sep 2019
        Replying to @CREID2852 @ForecasterEnten

        However, I don't know losing both is huge issue for Biden here. (It would indicate to me polling problems not building momentum IMO.) Of course it would be nice to have a better handle on Nevada though as a Biden victory there and bigger one of SC would put him back on top.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. tru-story‏ @Cozzy_was_Wrong 3 Sep 2019
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        It ~would~ be a blow on electability, but it ~shouldn't be~ (???) (Disclaimer Biden does suck.) If WI/PA/MI had open primaries and were first in the nation and Biden lost there, it would and should be a bigger blow... But Primary electibiltiy =/= GE electibiltiy.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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