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ForecasterEnten's profile
(((Harry Enten)))
(((Harry Enten)))
(((Harry Enten)))
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@ForecasterEnten

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(((Harry Enten)))Verified account

@ForecasterEnten

Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. http://cnn.it/3A8VJAn 

I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls.
cnn.com/profiles/harry…
Joined April 2010

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    (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 24 Mar 2019

    Here's an Iowa poll from @EmersonCollege that needless to say is... just a bit different. Biden 25%, Sanders 24%... Buttigieg 11% (yes that's what they found), Harris 10%, Warren 9%, Booker 6%, O'Rourke 5%... https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-biden-and-sanders-neck-and-neck-in-democratic-field-mayor-pete-jumps-to-double-digits …pic.twitter.com/FTiyZ0Yqdb

    11:39 AM - 24 Mar 2019
    • 91 Retweets
    • 385 Likes
    • Spicy Sulty 🔥 Miss Norma Jeane 🗽🩸 & 🦷 Lou - a rural blue dot (fully vaccinated) nightlighter Nat Kunin 🟣 CraigAlphusAndrewSmith saxmanscott Reub! Steeb
    52 replies 91 retweets 385 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 24 Mar 2019

        (Emerson almost always has no undecideds, fwiw. A product of their robo-polling. That robo-polling in a field of over a dozen is probably more suspect than usual... And no I don't believe Pete B. is at 11%. But I come from @fivethirtyeight school of presenting all data on here.)

        7 replies 9 retweets 69 likes
        Show this thread
      3. (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 24 Mar 2019

        I'll also note that in the past Emerson has sometimes listed candidates in alphabetical order with no rotating... It seems they may have done something similar here https://cdn.filestackcontent.com/fqNf9Uc1RJeAENx97NuK … (see question 5) Pete B. was listed first.

        4 replies 5 retweets 41 likes
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      4. (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 24 Mar 2019

        Thanks to Emerson for their fast response! In the IVR portion (they have dual IVR/Online frame), they listed Buttigieg first every time.... If the respondent took the poll online (n=107 out of 249), names were randomized... Traditionally, names are randomized...

        26 replies 13 retweets 69 likes
        Show this thread
      5. (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 24 Mar 2019

        Here's my bottom line: the big thing that really stands out about this poll is Mayor Pete's standing. Yea, I'm quite suspect of it (for a lot of reasons), but Emerson's record isn't bad. Iowa/NH voters pay closest attention. If we see an unknown jump, it'll be there first.

        17 replies 5 retweets 98 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. Douglas 'Skoryy' Hayden‏ @SpyralPegacyon 24 Mar 2019
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten @EmersonCollege

        Petementum!

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. It’s-a Tyler Dinucci  🤌🏼‏ @TylerDinucci 24 Mar 2019
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten

        tfw Emerson is good now.

        1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
      3. PittCabe‏ @PittCabe 24 Mar 2019
        Replying to @TylerDinucci @ForecasterEnten

        Didn't they just do a poll last week that was wildly different from this?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Conrad‏ @IDUnavailable 24 Mar 2019
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten @EmersonCollege

        Damn, Emerson's a pretty good pollster on 538's rankings. Good for Pete, really bad for Beto?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Colin Martin‏ @NotGbo 24 Mar 2019
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten @EmersonCollege

        Don't knock Pete Booty judge :)

        0 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
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      1. Connor‏ @connor_siemien 24 Mar 2019
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten @EmersonCollege

        Wow

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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