Good chart. The bottom chart reflects my statements in that BTC will reach the next halving before BCH. If you project that schedule forward and compare it to the “expected” for total POW lifetime you see the span I refer to.
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Why would you project that schedule forward indefinitely though? Especially given that the DA's vary.
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Because the DAs are intended to keep block times constant. The simpler the DA, the greater the potential for abuse. Lesson from altcoins. :)
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Not sure I agree with blanket sentiment that a simpler DA = easier abuse, ? that we can use early day altcoininomics as a basis for game theoretic development for mainchain competition.
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Replying to @FluidFluxation @BryceWeiner and
Regardless, yes, the DA work to keep block times consistent, however we are talking about gamification of token emission which is tied to block time. Still not clear on how this explains using this model to predict future trends so acutely.
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Point being I have data to back up my claims. That you think that data is somehow invalidated based on scale is a gratuitous assertion which is demonstrably untrue. It’s actually more accurate than a test net.
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I'd love to explore your data, and I'm not asserting your data is wrong, nor your thesis. Scale matters because many economic forces don't come into play/prominence until a certain threshold of value/risk is established. Just exploring the chain of logic and seeking clarification
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Yes and no. When it comes to the technical capability of gaming a DA, that’s well known and scales beautifully. There’s no need to summon economic animal spirits and incite them to perform game theory gymnastics. Theory changes as networks mature.
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That's a fair point, but we seem to agree that in this frame, game theory is tiered differently for 1)bitcoin 2)random PoW shitcoin with niche community. If that is core to thesis, the ability to make generalizing predictions on bitcoin seems.. less than satisfying.
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Bitcoin doesn’t exist in a bubble and competes in a free market against all SHA256 coins that cannot be merge mined with it, including BCH.
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In a macro sense sure, but localized n micro trends aren't to be neglected for best modeling practices. If they were and this was so simple the world would already run on an optimized austrian econ basis.
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http://Coinwarz.com As above, so below.
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