FiveThirtyEightVerified account

@jtlevy I don't think 538 is high on credibility right now.

Why? Sure, they predicted Clinton, but also acknowledged much more uncertainty than most others.

the particulars of the outcome were just this side of impossible by their (and everyone's) models.

to be clear, it's the credibility, and value, of all of these outlets I'm doubting this morning.

If a 30% underdog never won, then the model would be wrong. You can see these models play out in

sports when we have huge sample sizes. Presidential elections on the other hand are rare events

Yes, but what's the value? That's really the only question I have right now.

The value of having a rough idea of the odds is whatever you make of it.

@robsaker I'm not sure anyone trusts them anymore.

Still, it's arrogant/dumb to think that Hillary would have taken ALL Johnson votes. I'd never vote for Hillary. Or Trump.

Maybe it didn't throw the election, but it had an impact. I don't think we can deny that. (read my pinned post)

Surely folks can cast their ballot however they want. But some issues were ignored, and I'm prepping to pay the cost.

That's not on Johnson or Stein. That's on the Dem's and R's nominating the highest unfavorable candidates of all time.

I have a low tolerance for political apologists who seemingly ignore the human capital of this election.

"Elections have consequences," as our current POTUS said. Every four years one side feels screwed. We'll get past this.

But you refuse to even entertain that there is human capital in play, and help take some of the responsibility. Any of it.

*You* need to stop blaming & stop shirking responsibility. Yes, we did need to unite BEFORE the election.

STOP doubling down on misogyny with yr continued blame of Clinton rather than the Bernie Bros who sabotaged her. I'm appalled.

appalled u wld smear good people for daring to express their informed opinion ... disagree, but stop with ad hominem attacks