SPX.Fib.Trader

@FibSpx

Apply fibonacci levels to market trends. More than 10 years of trading stock & SPX. Developing strong mental attitude. Comments for Educational purposes only.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: srpanj 2018.

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  1. 4. velj

    Fib 50% is at 3097 (3347-2854) and 61.8% at 3040. This week we have higher expected move it is wise to wait hit these level before going long. Last week low was 3214 and if it breaks it will hit 3180 area before bounce. Buy the dip is dangerous until hit major supports.

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  2. 3. velj

    major supports Fib 50% from December low at 3208 and 61.8% at 3175 (3347-3070). Weekly low for week ending 15th December 2019 was 3183. Therefore 3180-85 area will see a bounce. Long Term Fib 50% at 3084 and 61.8% at 3022.55 (3347-2822 Aug 2019 low).

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  3. 2. velj

    - This period is seasonally week period for markets. EEM ETF has been declining for some times and will drag US markets down too. Bonds TLT is in uptrend. Currently TLT is 145.90 and target is 154 area. Once TLT reached 154 area expect US indices to start go up.

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  4. 2. velj

    - China market will be opened after 1 week New Year break. It is believe that Shanghai SE Composite index will be gap down. People Bank of China has announced that they will inject $174 billion of liquidity to the China market. Expect fire works to both sides.

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  5. 2. velj

    expected move for week commencing 02/03/2020 is 82 points. This means can go up to 3307 (3225+82) or down to 3143. Last week finished below last weeks expected move 3243 area. This week Volatility has increased.

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  6. 31. sij

    AAII Investor Sentiment Survey for week ending 01/29/2020 Bulls 32% Bears 36.9% Neutral 31.2%

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  7. 31. sij

    Investor Intelligence Bull/Bear Week ending 01/28/2020 Bulls 52.8% Bear 18.9% w/e 01/21/2020 Bulls 59.4% Bears 17.9% W/e 14/01/2020 Bulls 57% Bears 17.8%

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  8. 26. sij

    Fib 23.8% is at 3223 area. It is possible that could reach this area and bounce up. This could be the pullback that we have been expecting for. Pull back takes several weeks and this could be the start of the intermediate pull back. 3208 was previous support.

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  9. 26. sij

    expected move for w/c 01/27/2020 is 52 points. This means can go up to 3347 (3295+52) or down to 3243. Friday was the first 1% pull back day since 2nd of December. Volatility is high this week and expect moves to both sides.

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  10. 12. sij

    advance/decline ratio

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  11. 12. sij

    last week failed to pass 7630 area. Upper R1 7668 area (upper trendline) and bottom supports are 7525 area (previously bounced twice). Last week overnight low was 7461. FTSE Fib 50% is at 7404 and 61.8% at 7339. 7440 was resistance 3 times (Sept & Nov 19).

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  12. 12. sij

    US indices had a strong up days without a major pull back. Pull back is over due and should treat as buying opportunity. I think it is fair to say that as long as stays above 3000 it favour upward path. July 2019 high was 3026 and Sept 2019 high was 3022.

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  13. 12. sij

    US NFP figures came little bit less than expected. Average Hourly earning y/y% is seems to be going down (2nd chart) while unemployment rate is coming down. This mean that in short term inflation pressure is low and Fed can keep rates down. Low interest rates good for stocks

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  14. 12. sij

    AAII investor Sentiment Survey week ending 1/8/2020 Bullish 33.1% Neutral 37% Bearish 29.9% Investors Intelligence Sentiment (w/e) Bulls - Dec 24 =57.7% bears = 17.3% Dec 31 = Bulls 58.9% bears 17.8% Jan 7 = Bulls 55.1% bears 17.8% Retail investor are bullish.

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  15. 12. sij

    - week from Monday is US bank holiday (01/20/2020). Last week touch the trendline from May 2019. important levels are 3227 lower expected move 3208 low during New Year week 3180 trend line support from May 2019. Last week high 3287 ES & 3282 during trading hours

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  16. 12. sij

    expected move for week commencing 13th January 2020 is 38 points. This mean can go up to 3303 (3165+38) or down to 3227. Last week low (during trading hours was 3214 and after hours was 3181). A week before last week bounced twice from 3108 area.

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  17. 9. sij

    - this week ES futures hit bottom expected move 3189 and yesterday it came close to upper expected move. NFP is due on Friday and expect more volatility.

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  18. 5. sij

    short term fib levels (recent high 3265 in ES and 2nd Dec low 3070) Fib 38.20% is 3190 (this week lower expected move level) Fib 50% 3167 Fib 61.8% 3145 Traders should treat expected pull back as a buying opportunity as markets are expected to go up in the long run.

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  19. 5. sij

    important levels for the coming week. Last week low 3208 3154-3165 area (Nov 27th high was 3154 and spx traded around this area until 12th Dec break out. 3070 December 2nd low 3022 area (July and sept 2019 high).

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  20. 5. sij

    - spx has moved within expected move for the last 22 weeks. Please note that if move outside down expected move 3189, EXPECT wild move to the down side as traders will start hedging (short their spx) their longs positions. This will lead to rapid down side.

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