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No. Pushing air out of the lungs into the goatskin bag will not change the overall density of the soldier+bag combo and therefore not help him float at all. If it was a floatation device, it would more likely be in the shape of a belt around the waist.
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Je pense vraiment que ce système servait à nager sous l'eau, sur l'autre modèle le mouvement du bras est explicite, le nageur nage sous l'eau, le sac sous son ventre. La présence du poisson pour confirmer qu'il nage sous l'eau avec le poisson, invisible aux yeux de l'ennemi.
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You first hypothesis is most likely correct: They're attempting to stay underwater longer by breathing from bags in order to swim below the defender's arrow volleys and launch a surprise attack on the fort at close range.
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It seems to confirm the first hypothesis in my view. The top soldier is just swimming to get to the enemy. The bottom ones are using the bag as diving equipment to go through the underwater tunnel to attack.
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The swimmers are not attacking the castle, they are escaping from the two guys at the shore towards the safety of the castle. Pointed hats vs round hats. The top swimmer has already had two arrows and he is probably already dead. That is why he doesn't have an air balloon.
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