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What this means is in the event of a depeg, arbitrageurs will be able to convert depegged UST into $1 of LUNA. During a severe depeg, LUNA will be issued at an incredibly high rate until the peg is restored. If the peg isn't restored, LUNA will asymptotically approach zero. (3/9)
When the tokenomics are fixed and known, information is symmetrically available - thanks to the algorithmic functions presented in the whitepaper, it was clear that LUNA was on a crash course to exactly $0 and nothing would stop it. However... (4/9)
Behind the scenes, a closed group of validators were deciding on a course to change LUNA's fate. They were going to radically change LUNA's core tokenomics by disabling the market module to prevent a governance attack, and would stake large amounts of LUNA themselves. (5/9)
As discussions progressed, two hours before the chain halt was announced in the main validators' Discord, some large swaps from UST to LUNA began appearing on-chain and were swiftly staked. I'm still looking into which validators' wallets these were linked to. Why buy LUNA? (6/9)
Reason 1: Since this closed group was going to unilaterally change the tokenomics of LUNA entirely, almost completely alleviating the primary sell pressure, they knew that LUNA's price would reverse course and likely go up by a factor of 5x or 10x without UST arbitrage. (7/9)
Reason 2: If they're the only people staking (and nobody else can stake), they're the only ones who can benefit from hugely inflated staking rewards. The people lucky enough to rush in new stakes are currently earning 60,749% APR on the newly renamed LUNC chain. (8/9)
This is why those previous chat logs are important. Let's have true transparency. Let's shine a light - who was in that group? Who knew about the halt? Who were the big LUNA buyers & stakers right before the announcement? They are printing millions through insider trading. (9/9)
Special thanks to @asparagoid for ongoing on-chain data sleuthing and analysis. Hopefully, more to come.
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