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FatManTerra's profile
FatMan
FatMan
FatMan
@FatManTerra

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FatMan

@FatManTerra

FatMan from the Terra Research Forum I provide research, updates, and analysis on the Terra situation as it unfolds. Views are my own opinions.

fatmanterra.eth
Joined May 2022

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    1. FatMan‏ @FatManTerra May 22

      Some relevant background on Anchor, for the uninitiated. When Anchor is in a deficit (it makes less in profit than the interest it pays out), the excess comes from the 'yield reserve' (that Do Kwon altruistically topped up with $500m). This stabilizes the 19.5% rate. (2/11)

      2 replies 7 retweets 71 likes
      Show this thread
    2. FatMan‏ @FatManTerra May 22

      When studying Anchor's sustainability responsibly, one would analyze how much of the interest comes from borrowers/staking organically and how much comes from the temporary yield reserve runway. This would indicate how stable the ecosystem is in general. (3/11)

      1 reply 6 retweets 51 likes
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    3. FatMan‏ @FatManTerra May 22

      If the total 19.5% APY comes mostly from organic sources, there's less strain on the system as less smart capital will suddenly flee during uncertain times. If the borrowers are real, there's less risk of them suddenly pulling out large amounts of collateral at once. (4/11)

      1 reply 6 retweets 51 likes
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    4. FatMan‏ @FatManTerra May 22

      Hypothetically, what if I told you that five of the massive anonymous wallets we know and love comprised 50% of Anchor's bLUNA collateral at one point (out of 25,500) wallets? (5/11)pic.twitter.com/Hpt3EPzfvn

      2 replies 5 retweets 56 likes
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    5. FatMan‏ @FatManTerra May 22

      Hypothetically, what if I told you that some of the large borrowers were just letting their money sit in their account accruing millions in interest without actually using it? (6/11)pic.twitter.com/eKLf2WGEmZ

      2 replies 6 retweets 49 likes
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    6. FatMan‏ @FatManTerra May 22

      Inflating the Borrow side to make Anchor look more robust than it actually was would bring in an imbalanced amount of capital into the Earn side. The most sinister part is, even the best researchers who understand Anchor's revenue sources cannot 'DYODD' to unconver this. (7/11)

      4 replies 8 retweets 100 likes
      Show this thread
    7. FatMan‏ @FatManTerra May 22

      If someone inorganically inflated Borrow: who? Why? What did they stand to gain by pulling billions into the Terra ecosystem under false pretenses? Instead of slow, stable growth, this would move fast and break things, creating a system far more vulnerable to collapse. (8/11)

      1 reply 5 retweets 59 likes
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    8. FatMan‏ @FatManTerra May 22

      These wallets are quite old and some were funded with millions of LUNA years ago. I'm still exploring some links, but it doesn't matter if they were TFL employees or early VCs/megawhales. Both are bad. Both would be defrauding retail, if what the data suggests is true. (9/11)

      1 reply 8 retweets 76 likes
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    9. FatMan‏ @FatManTerra May 22

      PS. About the 'algorithm' - Terra's primary economic algorithmic promise was that you could always redeem $1 of LUNA by burning 1 UST. That algorithm has now been turned off. The algorithm was a lie. This is not something you can research about and know in advance. (10/11)

      6 replies 22 retweets 151 likes
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    10. Georges  👨‍💻‏ @TheUneuro May 22
      Replying to @FatManTerra

      How can we turn it back on? Governance? Who was consulted when TFL decided to turn it off?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      FatMan‏ @FatManTerra May 22
      Replying to @TheUneuro

      Governance would break if it were turned on by itself - the best move is to enable seigniorage and disable staking after making sure validators are updated to protect against overflow errors etc. This would preserve the economic model *and* preserve governance.

      1:54 AM - 22 May 2022
      • 1 Like
      • Piyush mishra
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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