Regarding the period during which the TRO against the merger will remain in force:
1. Given that Microsoft & Activision even asked for the hearing to take longer, it's clear that the TRO will be in force for more than 2 weeks.
2. The 2-week rule applies to TROs that come down without notice to the other party, and courts can reasonably extend it a bit.
3. In practice, the key thing here is that there cannot be the slightest doubt about the decision on the FTC's PI motion coming down well ahead of the July 18 contractual closing date. It's not that there is a strict legal obligation on the judge, but the court simply wouldn't let the contract expire. The PI decision can be made pretty quickly after the hearing.
4. With 4.5 days in court, it's now less likely that the decision will be made at the end of the last day of the hearing (though not totally impossible). I would expect a decision within 3-5 days of the last hearing day.
5. "Bench read" (trying to figure out where judges stand) is tricky, but even one of the very best U.S. lawyers I know told me that no one can really resist the temptation. I have a pretty high hit rate with my analysis of what judges say at hearings and trials, but I've also been surprised on a few occasions. Judge Corley tends to make it very clear where she stands on the issues. We may really get a clear idea during the hearing of what's going to happen.