Agree with the first and last sentences here. The middle part is at least somewhat arbitrary and reminds me of the old "top three out of IA, top two out of NH" rule of thumb my grad school adviser often used as a starting point.https://twitter.com/baseballcrank/status/1106601161505886214 …
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But I say somewhat arbitrary because it hinges on the dispersion of wins, shows and places across those first four contests. [And Dan allows for that in the tweet.] The more dispersed, the less that rule holds.
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I strongly suspect we'll see some significant
#winnowing after IA because Klobuchar is far from alone on the IA-or-bust strategy with this field. There are *a lot* of hopeful prospective Jimmy Carters out there.Show this thread
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The 3-2-1 strategy was most recently celebrated by one Marco Rubio, who is a good parallel for a number of candidates whose prospects seem much more robust in pundits’ hearts than offline
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