Why is it important to understand availability cascades? They determine which ideas spread in the world and which do not. How much an idea spreads is often independent of merit/truth if it gains sufficient momentum.
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Availability campaigns: “Pressure groups… seek to instigate availability cascades." “A common tactic is to produce a headline-grabbing uproar by dramatizing a problem.”
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Manipulation of the media “A common method for triggering availability cascades is for a group to pass carefully sifted information to selected journalists... The information will often contain grains of truth, but it may also harbor biases, even outright fabrications.”
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Manipulation of political institutions “A special-interest group supplies information to members of Congress, who hold hearings... journalists help spread the message... citizens join the fray... laws or regulations are adopted... instigating fresh opportunities [for] uproar"
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“Populist Firestorms and Democratic Risk Regulation” “Availability cascades create serious problems for democracy… They create a danger that apparently democratic outcomes will rest on misinformation”
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Problems for democracy “The argument thus far indicates that "public opinion" about the regulation of risks (the distribution of public policy preferences) constitutes a highly problematic basis for government policy.”
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Public vs private preferences divergence When cascades have a lot of momentum individuals may hide their private preferences if they go against the cascade. Some would argue this happened in the 2016 presidential election.
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Runaway availability cascades If momentum behind a cascade is high, some people may avoid speaking out against it or even actively support it despite knowing they are inaccurate or outright wrong.
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Politicians riding runaway availability cascades “To avoid charges of insensitivity, even to avoid having to justify an unpopular position, [a politician] may make speeches and promote policies that convey deep concern about a waste spill that he actually considers harmless.”
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Social availability errors: When availability cascades create "widespread mistaken beliefs”. “The resulting mass delusions may last indefinitely and produce detrimental laws and policies."
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Meta Ironically, the paper is itself an availability cascade for available cascades that exploits the availability heuristic: “Offering recent examples of availability cascades that have resulted in socially harmful regulatory responses, we shall propose institutional reforms…”
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What are historical examples? Edward Bernays, the GOAT of Availability Entrepreneurs. As Freud’s cousin, he exploited his ideas to create the PR industry, the idea of “lifestyle” products, and sway elections. Documented in The Century of the Self: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Century_of_the_Self …
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Summary Availability cascades are extremely powerful mechanisms that determine what ideas dominate in society. They work by combining the proliferation of specific information and social pressure in a runaway self-reinforcing cycle.
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