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Agree we need functional data for AY.4. But this lineage is in decline in the US (14 -> 7%), and worldwide, which certainly suggests it isn't capable of competing with Delta outbreak.info/situation-repo Many other reasons for UK situation twitter.com/EricTopol/stat

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Scott Gottlieb, MD

@ScottGottliebMD

Oct 17, 2021

UK reported its biggest one-day Covid case increase in 3 months just as the new delta variant AY.4 with the S:Y145H mutation in the spike reaches 8% of UK sequenced cases. We need urgent research to figure out if this delta plus is more transmissible, has partial immune evasion?

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It’s S:Y145H mutation to AY.4 that adds uncertainty since it changes a feature on the spike.

Eric Topol

@EricTopol

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@ScottGottliebMD

Yes on uncertainty. Here's more on S:Y145H outbreak.info

8:32 PM · Oct 17, 2021

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great chart on when this was first detected (March 2020). It doesn’t make sense that something that’s been around since 1.5 years would suddenly become a game changer in a bad way…this sounds like non issue / unnecessary panic. Separately, Israeli cases: 10k to 700 (boosters!!)

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Interestingly, it looks like it is starting to rise exponentially in USA too. Could this be a chance/super spreader event, or genuine founder effect? Many shrugged off Delta at the start but it became dominant shortly after so we shouldn't dismiss it yet

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Why can't I find S:Y145H

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