Eric HolthausVerified account

@EricHolthaus

''The internet's favorite meteorologist'' — | Climate nerd | Host of podcast. Say hi: sciencebyericholthaus@gmail.com

Joined April 2011

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  2. Latest spaghetti plots for : Through the Florida Keys or over Cuba, then psbl rapid intensification in the GoM.

  3. Of course, that 10% scenario would be really, really bad, which is what makes worth tracking closely.

  4. My current thoughts: 40% chance does nothing at all, ever. 40% chance it maxes at TS in GoM 10% chance of Cat 1-3+ hurricane in GoM.

  5. 00Z model recap for : Major models show nothing til ~Sunday, after passing FL Keys. After that, TD/TS/Cat1/2/3/4/5 still in play in GoM.

  6. HWRF newly upgraded for 2016 has suffered from some outlandish forecasts ... like this one from 3 days ago. Nope.

  7. Worst-case scenario still a possibility, according to latest HWRF. Here’s Wed am, headed toward Gulf Coast:

  8. HWRF simulated satellite forecast or scenario.

  9. HWRF 00z progression of Invest 99L from nary a t-storm, thru Straits of FL as weak storm, into Gulf as monster. 5th fx run in a row.

  10. (that’s as an intensifying category 3 hurricane by Wednesday morning)

  11. Don’t underestimate a peak season tropical cyclone in Gulf of Mexico. Wide view of latest (00Z) HWRF run (Sat-Wed):

  12. Latest (00Z) HWRF rapidly intensifies to a major hurricane after passing FL Keys. This storm is not dead yet.

  13. Breaking: Obama Designates World's Largest Marine Preserve In Hawaii

  14. Invest 99L has been tracked for > 8-days now. Last 29 GFS forecasts:

  15. Latest key messages from NHC regarding 99L issued 8 p.m. EDT Thursday.

  16. being blown a kiss by your two year old is officially the best thing ever

  17. If you want intelligent accessible and empathetic coverage of weather & climate news, I present

  18. My next band will be called "sorry sack of clouds". cc:

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