Mueller almost certainly won't indict Trump – not because it would be unconstitutional, but because Mueller's authority is very different from Ken Starr's was. I can explain. 1/ https://twitter.com/waltshaub/status/956882797972606976 …
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Given these rules, it's extraordinarily unlikely that Mueller would bring a prosecution that, in the judgment of DOJ's Office of Legal Counsel, would violate the Constitution. 12/
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(Theoretically, Mueller or Rosenstein could ask OLC to revisit its opinion, but it’s very doubtful that OLC would change its view on an issue that it already addressed twice.) 13/
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So what can Mueller do if he believes that Trump has committed criminal acts? Mueller must provide Rosenstein a final report explaining all his "prosecution or declination decisions" -- i.e. why he prosecuted individuals or declined to do so. 14/
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The format of this report isn't specified by regulation, but if Mueller were otherwise inclined to indict Trump, I suspect he would set forth relevant facts. I also believe Rosenstein would make relevant portions of the report public, although he isn't obligated to do so. 15/
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While some have suggested that Mueller would make an "impeachment referral" to Congress if he finds evidence of impeachable acts, that was part of the now-expired independent counsel statute and is no longer an option for Mueller. 16/
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Other than judicial filings and trial proceedings, Mueller's work can reach Congress only with Rosenstein's blessing -- unless Congress subpoenas Mueller's report, which isn't likely to happen as long as the GOP controls Congress. 17/
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(It's also possible that Congress might subpoena grand jury evidence, as suggested here by
@rgoodlaw and@alexgwhiting.) 18/https://www.justsecurity.org/44191/mueller-grand-jury-report-public-hand-congress/ …Show this thread -
Bottom line: Trump won't be indicted, this is all about impeachment, the upcoming midterm elections are crucial, Rosenstein remains a very important guy, and I’m holding my nose and hoping that Sessions stays where he is. 19/end
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P.S. I just published a piece in WaPo based upon this thread.

https://twitter.com/EricColumbus/status/958437941319208961 …Show this thread
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