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EmilyGorcenski's profile
Emily G
Emily G
Emily G
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@EmilyGorcenski

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Emily GVerified account

@EmilyGorcenski

Lead Data Scientist, activist, survivor. Was actually assaulted by an actual right-wing terrorist. Opinions belong only to me, especially the bad ones. she/they

Deep Space Nine
emilygorcenski.com
Joined June 2013

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    Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Sep 24

    Emily G Retweeted MSNBC

    This is a sensationalist story, and we should be asking how one car equals three jobs.https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1044164603398291457 …

    Emily G added,

    MSNBCVerified account @MSNBC
    President Trump's tariffs could mean a 2,000,000 drop in car sales and cost 715,000 American jobs, auto industry group warns. https://on.msnbc.com/2MWg7LD 
    3:22 AM - 24 Sep 2018
    • 4 Retweets
    • 46 Likes
    • Call me Trumphofer (mr. robot) 🧡 ☠️ Burn It All Down ☠️ Spencer L. my name is ☠️ Spooky [Dan] ☠️ artificial neutral network Marxicare for All Abolish ICE, Abolish Prison The Consumerist Of Babies⚧ .☆・☆-♡-☆・[Maaaaz👻Heeeem]☆・-♡-☆°・☆
    5 replies 4 retweets 46 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Sep 24

        Swap that. Still doesn’t add up.

        2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Sep 24

        Maybe if you consider long term effects etc but I still doubt it

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Berzerker Builds‏ @BerzerkerBuilds Sep 24
        Replying to @EmilyGorcenski

        Got your numbers backwards, 1 job = 3 cars. The auto industry is a massive supply and logistics chain. Every gear, blinky light and radio dial comes from somewhere. Most of those parts require steel. Still seems a bit sensationalist, but I bet it's actually not far off.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Sep 24
        Replying to @BerzerkerBuilds

        Er yes

        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Xy‏ @XylariaVG Sep 24
        Replying to @EmilyGorcenski

        Er, 3 cars to one job, by those numbers. Still seems excessive.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Shaun‏ @Acharenus Sep 24
        Replying to @XylariaVG @EmilyGorcenski

        My brain was throwing up an objection. Thanks for pointing it out.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Princess Rainbow‏ @rCharlotteSmith Sep 24
        Replying to @EmilyGorcenski @Jen_the_Jenius

        okay so I read the original report and it doesn't explain how they estimated impact on employment, but looking at their tables, it appears that they're assuming change in employment is change in gdp divided by about 83k. so that doesn't seem unreasonable, but the gdp estimates do

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Princess Rainbow‏ @rCharlotteSmith Sep 24
        Replying to @rCharlotteSmith @EmilyGorcenski @Jen_the_Jenius

        they make some weird modeling assumptions. to their credit most probably underestimate the cost of the tariff rather than overestimating it (eg, perfectly elastic supply). but they, uh, appear to ignore tariff revenues? like there's 6M cars sold in the US per year and in their

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Princess Rainbow‏ @rCharlotteSmith Sep 24
        Replying to @rCharlotteSmith @EmilyGorcenski @Jen_the_Jenius

        worst case model, that goes down by 2M to 4M and the price of each one rises $4400 on average. as a rough calculation, if that increase is entirely due to tariffs, that's like $18M per year, meaning that the gdp loss estimates are probably too big by nearly 50%

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Princess Rainbow‏ @rCharlotteSmith Sep 24
        Replying to @rCharlotteSmith @EmilyGorcenski @Jen_the_Jenius

        they didn't explicitly say they were excluding tariff revenues but I can't think of any reason they wouldn't mention them if they were being included

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. maswastaken‏ @maswastaken Sep 24
        Replying to @EmilyGorcenski

        I want to say terrible wages and outrageously high profit margins on individual sales but I can't see that working outside of some really specific makes.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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