Swap that. Still doesn’t add up.
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Maybe if you consider long term effects etc but I still doubt it
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Got your numbers backwards, 1 job = 3 cars. The auto industry is a massive supply and logistics chain. Every gear, blinky light and radio dial comes from somewhere. Most of those parts require steel. Still seems a bit sensationalist, but I bet it's actually not far off.
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Er, 3 cars to one job, by those numbers. Still seems excessive.
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My brain was throwing up an objection. Thanks for pointing it out.
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okay so I read the original report and it doesn't explain how they estimated impact on employment, but looking at their tables, it appears that they're assuming change in employment is change in gdp divided by about 83k. so that doesn't seem unreasonable, but the gdp estimates do
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they make some weird modeling assumptions. to their credit most probably underestimate the cost of the tariff rather than overestimating it (eg, perfectly elastic supply). but they, uh, appear to ignore tariff revenues? like there's 6M cars sold in the US per year and in their
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worst case model, that goes down by 2M to 4M and the price of each one rises $4400 on average. as a rough calculation, if that increase is entirely due to tariffs, that's like $18M per year, meaning that the gdp loss estimates are probably too big by nearly 50%
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they didn't explicitly say they were excluding tariff revenues but I can't think of any reason they wouldn't mention them if they were being included
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I want to say terrible wages and outrageously high profit margins on individual sales but I can't see that working outside of some really specific makes.
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