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EmilyGorcenski's profile
Emily G
Emily G
Emily G
Verified account
@EmilyGorcenski

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Emily GVerified account

@EmilyGorcenski

Lead Data Scientist, activist, survivor. Was actually assaulted by an actual right-wing terrorist. Opinions belong only to me, especially the bad ones. she/they

Deep Space Nine
emilygorcenski.com
Joined June 2013

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    1. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      Obviously, setting votes to a billion in each precinct would probably raise a few red flags. So that’s not feasible. But what is?

      1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      Anti-Trumpism has spent a lot of time exhorting people to vote. Voter suppression aside, there is an expectation that voter turnout will be higher in some demographics

      2 replies 2 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      That sets our baseline. Right there we’ve got an outlier to work with. That means that it’s fair game to do whatever you want if you have access over the final vote tallies.

      1 reply 3 retweets 15 likes
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    4. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      So if I were to hack the vote—and I pause here to inform my monitors that I have no such plan—I would begin by manipulating votes within this bubble of extra voters.

      1 reply 3 retweets 25 likes
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    5. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      To put it another way, suppose Smallville has a pretty consistent turnout for midterm elections of between 13 and 17% of voters. But this year, thanks to civic engagement, they get 22%. That’s at least 5% of all eligible voters you can fuck with, or a full ~33% of votes

      1 reply 5 retweets 21 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      Now, we assume the extra votes will be more heavily distributed against Trump, right? But what if they’re not? What if we make them not? How can we even tell?

      1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      Our alternative hypothesis is that we’re going to see a change in distribution. But what if we don’t? The best we can do is fail to reject the null hypothesis. So if I were hacking votes, in a contested or pro-Trump precinct, I’d make the votes look distributed like 2016.

      1 reply 2 retweets 14 likes
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    8. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      And if you do this there is *absolutely no way to catch it*

      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
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    9. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      Not through statistical means, at least. Your priors are too damn strong.

      1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
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    10. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      The best way to get away with things is to go unnoticed. And the best way to go unnoticed is to have no meaningful change that can be detected. This means that a ton of votes don’t need to be swapped. Just a handful per precinct.

      1 reply 6 retweets 27 likes
      Show this thread
      Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      When we think of election impropriety we think of dictators stuffing the ballot box to get 99% of the votes. It’s much more damaging, tho, if you can ensure that a 3 pt margin remains a 3 pt margin.

      11:44 AM - 24 Aug 2018
      • 14 Retweets
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      5 replies 14 retweets 32 likes
        1. Erin Eldridge‏ @ChateauErin Aug 24
          Replying to @EmilyGorcenski

          Hmm. Would exit poll data give you any confidence that the vote totals should’ve changed? (I originally followed you for either your voting machine commentary or your takedown of Geohotz’ car thing)

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. NYEMSMom‏ @rehtaeh1628 Aug 24
          Replying to @EmilyGorcenski

          And that’s just it. It’s statistically impossible for Trump to have won by these margins in these strategically necessary places. Too, there were reports on Election Day of people watching their vote change on the touchscreen once they pressed it. Reg errors = no votes, too.

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        1. BurgSkeletal‏ @BurgSkeletal Aug 24
          Replying to @EmilyGorcenski

          I think Russia funding the NRA and placing spies in it is the bigger story personally. Trump probably owes money to Russian mobsters, since he launders their money at his Panama hotel, but he has done more to help Saudi Arabia and Israel than he haa for Russia.

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        2. BurgSkeletal‏ @BurgSkeletal Aug 24
          Replying to @EmilyGorcenski

          I think Trump won fair and square and would win regardless of Russian. If you dont have proof, then you're basing your claims on nothing. All we know right now is Russia paid for ads, memes, and trolls, but so did the DNC. Our own media helped Trump more than Russia ever did.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Queer Eye for the Animorphs Reboot‏ @JacksonEflin Aug 24
          Replying to @BurgSkeletal @EmilyGorcenski

          What if both of these things were able to be potentially true at once.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. BurgSkeletal‏ @BurgSkeletal Aug 24
          Replying to @JacksonEflin @EmilyGorcenski

          They can be, but it isnt likely. The media just wants to exaggerate this Russia story so they can bang the wardrum. Some pundits have compared the DNC hack to 9/11 and Pearl Harbor 😂😂😂 The DNC has already changed its mind about Russia hacking them.https://apnews.com/amp/a6fa40dc44b249609b4153cc3b458d7c?__twitter_impression=true …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. David “Spooky Jello” Conrad‏ @daiconrad Aug 24
          Replying to @EmilyGorcenski

          And the media is more than ready, in that eventuality, to report it as simply "Trump supporters still like Trump"

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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