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EmilyGorcenski's profile
Emily G
Emily G
Emily G
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@EmilyGorcenski

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Emily GVerified account

@EmilyGorcenski

Lead Data Scientist, activist, survivor. Was actually assaulted by an actual right-wing terrorist. Opinions belong only to me, especially the bad ones. she/they

Deep Space Nine
emilygorcenski.com
Joined June 2013

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    1. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      Emily G Retweeted Emily G

      Actually, let’s talk about this a little more because I’ve spent the last 2 years thinking about how I would do it if I were, say, a hostile foreign power.https://twitter.com/EmilyGorcenski/status/1033056465567862784 …

      Emily G added,

      Emily GVerified account @EmilyGorcenski
      So like, there’s no evidence that vote totals have been hacked. But it’s entirely within the realm of possibility to do that, right? That’s pretty well accepted among experts. Y’all also know that there is ~~nothing~~ in place for when that happens and is detected, right?
      Show this thread
      2 replies 21 retweets 50 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      Obviously, setting votes to a billion in each precinct would probably raise a few red flags. So that’s not feasible. But what is?

      1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      Anti-Trumpism has spent a lot of time exhorting people to vote. Voter suppression aside, there is an expectation that voter turnout will be higher in some demographics

      2 replies 2 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      That sets our baseline. Right there we’ve got an outlier to work with. That means that it’s fair game to do whatever you want if you have access over the final vote tallies.

      1 reply 3 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      So if I were to hack the vote—and I pause here to inform my monitors that I have no such plan—I would begin by manipulating votes within this bubble of extra voters.

      1 reply 3 retweets 25 likes
      Show this thread
      Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

      To put it another way, suppose Smallville has a pretty consistent turnout for midterm elections of between 13 and 17% of voters. But this year, thanks to civic engagement, they get 22%. That’s at least 5% of all eligible voters you can fuck with, or a full ~33% of votes

      11:31 AM - 24 Aug 2018
      • 5 Retweets
      • 21 Likes
      • Geena The Damned foxgrrl Lily Pastor lightbird Joanna VA Mom & Resister Sister ((( ))) marx attacks!! Nirdian
      1 reply 5 retweets 21 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

          Now, we assume the extra votes will be more heavily distributed against Trump, right? But what if they’re not? What if we make them not? How can we even tell?

          1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

          Our alternative hypothesis is that we’re going to see a change in distribution. But what if we don’t? The best we can do is fail to reject the null hypothesis. So if I were hacking votes, in a contested or pro-Trump precinct, I’d make the votes look distributed like 2016.

          1 reply 2 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

          And if you do this there is *absolutely no way to catch it*

          1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

          Not through statistical means, at least. Your priors are too damn strong.

          1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

          The best way to get away with things is to go unnoticed. And the best way to go unnoticed is to have no meaningful change that can be detected. This means that a ton of votes don’t need to be swapped. Just a handful per precinct.

          1 reply 6 retweets 27 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Emily G‏Verified account @EmilyGorcenski Aug 24

          When we think of election impropriety we think of dictators stuffing the ballot box to get 99% of the votes. It’s much more damaging, tho, if you can ensure that a 3 pt margin remains a 3 pt margin.

          5 replies 14 retweets 32 likes
          Show this thread
        8. End of conversation

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