Elysabeth BrittCompte certifié

THREAD: 1/ As Syria unravels, time again to make case for why U.S. military involvement there (beyond destroying ISIS) makes things worse, while U.S. diplomatic, humanitarian engagement makes things better.

2/ U.S. military half measures over past 4 years have badly exacerbated the war. Building up Kurds to fight ISIS drew in Turkey, weak support for Syrian rebels gave them enough to continue, not enough to win.

3/ Now, presence of thousands of U.S. troops is dragging us more directly into the many conflicts playing out in Syria: SDF v. ISIS Israel v. Iran rebels v. Asad/Iran/Russia Turkey v. Kurds

4/ U.S. failure to understand local political and tribal dynamics dooms any military mission – just like Iraq (and Syria is much more complicated than Iraq)

5/ The continued military conflict in Syria is inevitable and it will be years until it ends. But it will last twice as long if U.S. gets more directly involved in the combat. Our presence will raise stakes for others.

6/ This doesn’t mean disengagement. Tillerson should change his schedule and go to Israel on Middle East trip. Make clear we will support Israel’s ability to defend its borders, increase funding for Israel’s protection.

7/ U.S. must end our absence from peace talks – stop outsourcing diplomacy to Turkey and Russia.

8/ And time to realize our leverage in diplomacy is not our military presence in Syria. Hasn’t worked so far bc all sides know we have less at stake militarily than other parties.