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For example, if we know 90 out 100 votes for sure, and the split is 55-35. At that point even if all the remaining 10 votes went against the guy with 35, he couldn't catch up. That's why "safe" states get called early.
In swing states, we have to know more of the total votes before we can determine who wins. A close state may be at 49-48 with 97/100 votes counted. The 3 votes left to count could switch who's ahead.
Normally, there are ways to predict how those last remaining votes will trend (if it's urban vs rural precincts, etc) and so that's why networks will call swing states at different times. I expect they will all be a little more cautious Tuesday when the margins are close.
I used numbers out of 100, but scale it up so those are % of total votes cast, and it is the same math.
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