ElectionBabe

Let's go back to the original total. My pollbook notes the voters who voted early,voted absentee, or requested an absentee ballot. I tally the three separately. Add the "Voted Early" and "Voted Absentee". Divide by original total and calculate your %.

Then do the same equation, only substitute the number of ballots issued in place of the original total. Compare the EV% to the projected baseline %. Then add your EV total to the number of ballots received.

Subtract that total from the number of voters in the original pollbook total. Now you know how many people haven't voted yet.

"But Genya, what about the folks who requested an Absentee Ballot?" These folks are a special category. They requested a ballot, but we don't know if they voted yet. These folks could come to vote in person! (Imagine Schröedinger's Voter)

Some people didn't receive a ballot. Or it got eaten by their toddler. Or they just feel safer voting in person. I do add the Requested Absentee and Voted Absentee total, but it has to get updated as people vote.

That putative total gets calculated as a "Projected Vote By Mail"total and compared to the original total. Stay tuned for part 2 of this scintillating series.

Ready for Part 2 of the most mind numbingly boring elections stats lesson ever? Great!

So now we have the total number of voters, projected number of voters, total of early/absentee voters, and projected number of absentee voters. What's missing, kids?

Ding Ding Ding! You're right. Where is the ACTUAL total of voters who voted? So that has to get updated as people vote, and whatever that number is gets added to our total of early voters. Divide by the pollbook total, calculate % of actual turnout

Going to throw y'all a curveball: what happens to our "Requested Absentee" folks? If they surrender their ballot to vote in person, they get added to the "Actual" total. If I get word they voted absentee, they get added to "Voted Absentee".

Let's leave that for a minute. Add up the ballots received, the "Requested Absentee" "Voted Absentee" "Voted Early". Compare that total to pollbook total. This tells you how many voters were expected to vote vs. population of registered voters.

So depending on how you want to determine turnout, just keep adding in the people who cast their ballots and compare to the pollbook total or the ballots received total.

At the end of the night, I go to the ballot scanner and look at how many votes were cast. I compare it to the number of ballots I have left. My ledger balances, I transmit. Then I go compare that total to the pollbook and projected totals.

So which is the most accurate determinant of turnout? Depends on whether you want to go by how many registered voters were in that precinct, or by how many ballots the office sent you (the number is the "projected" total)

And there you have it: precinct specific turnout stats. The only thing left is to add in late absentee ballots and the provisionals that got counted for the precinct.