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Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections
Gainesville, FLelectproject.orgJoined September 2012

Michael McDonald’s Tweets

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If you like my early voting analyses, you'll enjoy my book "From Pandemic to Insurrection: Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election." It tells the story of the battles around voting in the 2020 election, complete with accessible analyses of voting data
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Appears that tonight's Georgia absentee file has a corruption issue with the zip file. I've notified the Elections Director at the . Until it is fixed, no Georgia update 😢
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It’s now clear Elon Musk’s plan is to gut Twitter’s content moderation team & policies. So it’s worth taking a trip down memory lane to see how & (much more importantly) *WHY* Twitter’s content moderation policies have developed since it’s creation in 2006. 🧵
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NEW: A wide swath of Twitter's trust & safety team had access to content moderation/enforcement tools frozen last week. Usually, hundreds of people on the team could remove posts w/misinfo, hate speech etc. It's now down to 15 people. Scoop w/@KurtWagner8 @daveyalba @EdLudlow
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I've got the Clark Dem firewall at +26,417 early votes (in-person and mail). Mail ballots did indeed come in strong yesterday for the Democrats. Will have to see if this trend carries through. Recommend checking out for more in-depth analysis
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Updated: The early voting blog, via @RalstonReports. New mail drop of 18,000 ballots boosts Democrats in Clark County. Details on the blog: thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-ea
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Huge victory just now for voting rights in Arizona in our case representing re drop box intimidation. Also saw weigh in on our side. Judge ruling from the bench with written order to come shortly. More details to come…
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BREAKING: a federal judge in Arizona is set to issue a temporary restraining order against ballot box watching group Clean Elections USA, barring it & its associates from some specific activities — including open carrying firearms — in the vicinity of ballot boxes.
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You would think some kid somewhere is suffering from a tummy ache from eating too much candy and their Fox-watching parents rushed them to the hospital for fentanyl poisoning...and the story would wall-to-wall on Fox
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I've had RSV or something like it for the past two weeks (not COVID, tested negative). I can't even begin to describe how exhausted I am. First day in two weeks I haven't been coughing
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The kiddo had RSV for eight days (he's okay!). We both got it too. Tomorrow is his first full day back at daycare In *this* moment, I don't care that much how my pieces from Oct look in retrospect? I mean I think they'll be fine. But I'm sorta just proud I produced anything
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While younger NC voters 18-29 are increasing their share of the early vote (mail and in-person) as we near Election Day (a very typical pattern), their share of the overall early vote is consistently lower each day of early voting compared to 2018
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Updating this post: NC has caught up and is now slightly above 2018 total early vote at the same number of days prior to the election (not accounting for population growth). But, young voters 18-29 still lagging. Were 8.0% in 2018, are 6.2% now
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Almost as if this is just a fundraising stunt
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Two hours into their stay in jail, True the Vote posted a call for donations on Truth Social. “And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free. John 8:32. To join us in cause, please donate here.” texas.votebeat.org/2022/10/31/234 via @JessicaHuseman
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Which polls will set the GOP narrative of massive vote fraud among African-American communities when Walker does not get 20% of the vote in Black precincts? 🤔
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Herschel Walker % of Black vote in GOP vs nonpartisan polls: InsiderAdvantage (R): 19% CoEfficient (R): 22% Rasmussen (R): 25% NYT/Siena: 7%
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A solid (and expected pattern) in the PA mail ballot data is that no or minor party registrants are slowing inching up day-to-day in ballot returns. They were ~7% of all voters when large numbers of ballots started coming in two weeks ago and they were ~10% last week
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This is the make-or-break week for early voting. If the past is a guide, the volume should pick up as people who tend to be younger and do not hold as strong partisan attachments make their choices and decide to vote
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Florida has no statewide database for ex-felons who owe fines, fees, and restitution. Maybe you are eligible to vote, but you can't figure it out or maybe you try to but are given bad info. This is a trap designed to intimidate people fearful of going back to prison from voting
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NEW: A week after @GovRonDeSantis announced voter fraud arrests, Florida quietly updated a form for Floridians on probation: "By signing this letter you agree that you are solely responsible for determining if you are legally able to register to vote." tampabay.com/news/florida-p
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NEW: A week after announced voter fraud arrests, Florida quietly updated a form for Floridians on probation: "By signing this letter you agree that you are solely responsible for determining if you are legally able to register to vote."
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A reminder Georgia notified me that their election management system has scheduled maintenance this evening and the absentee file will be delayed. I likely will run it tomorrow morning
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“ In other words, the father and daughter are facing discipline not for any inappropriate courtroom conduct, but for pure speech. And not just any speech, but speech that called out injustice in the system.”
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