Michael McDonald’s Tweets

From Pandemic to Insurrection: Voting in the 2020 US Presidential Election

Oct 22

If you like my early voting analyses, you'll enjoy my book "From Pandemic to Insurrection: Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election." It tells the story of the battles around voting in the 2020 election, complete with accessible analyses of voting data

amazon.com

From Pandemic to Insurrection: Voting in the 2020 US Presidential Election describes voting in the 2020 election, from the presidential nomination to new voting laws post-election. Election officials...

#earlyvote morning update 11/2: at least 28 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳 rpubs.com/ElectProject/e

11h

Appears that tonight's Georgia absentee file has a corruption issue with the zip file. I've notified the Elections Director at the

@GaSecofState

. Until it is fixed, no Georgia update 😢

Aidan O'Brien

@aidanpobrien

It’s now clear Elon Musk’s plan is to gut Twitter’s content moderation team & policies. So it’s worth taking a trip down memory lane to see how & (much more importantly) *WHY* Twitter’s content moderation policies have developed since it’s creation in 2006. 🧵

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Jackie Davalos

@jackiedavalos1

NEW: A wide swath of Twitter's trust & safety team had access to content moderation/enforcement tools frozen last week. Usually, hundreds of people on the team could remove posts w/misinfo, hate speech etc. It's now down to 15 people. Scoop w/@KurtWagner8 @daveyalba @EdLudlow

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I've got the Clark Dem firewall at +26,417 early votes (in-person and mail). Mail ballots did indeed come in strong yesterday for the Democrats. Will have to see if this trend carries through. Recommend checking out

@RalstonReports

for more in-depth analysis

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Nevada Independent

@TheNVIndy

16h

Updated: The early voting blog, via @RalstonReports. New mail drop of 18,000 ballots boosts Democrats in Clark County. Details on the blog: thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-ea

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#earlyvote evening update 11/1: at least 27 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳 rpubs.com/ElectProject/e

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LaRose Reports Early Voting Remains Strong One Week Out From Election Day

14h

Just posted a big #earlyvote report out of Ohio. They've only been posting numbers once a week, so when they drop they can move the numbers quickly

ohiosos.gov

michaelmcdonald.substack.com

Ian Bassin

@ianbassin

14h

Huge victory just now for voting rights in Arizona in our case representing

@LWV

re drop box intimidation. Also saw

@TheJusticeDept

weigh in on our side. Judge ruling from the bench with written order to come shortly. More details to come…

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Ken Bensinger

@kenbensinger

15h

BREAKING: a federal judge in Arizona is set to issue a temporary restraining order against ballot box watching group Clean Elections USA, barring it & its associates from some specific activities — including open carrying firearms — in the vicinity of ballot boxes.

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Did the Fetterman-Oz Debate Change the Trajectory of the Pennsylvania Senate Race?

Did the Fetterman-Oz Debate Change the Trajectory of the Pennsylvania Senate Race?

There was a lot of pundit speculation following an NBC interview that Pennsylvania voters would abandon John Fetterman, who is recovering from a stroke months ago. The Tuesday Oct. 25 debate between...

18h

#earlyvote late afternoon update 11/1: at least 26 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳 rpubs.com/ElectProject/e

michaelmcdonald.substack.com

20h

A Deep Dive into Florida's Early Voting

A Deep Dive into Florida's Early Vote

As of Tuesday morning, a week before Election Day, over 3.02 million voters have cast ballots in the Sunshine State. Some 21.5% of registered Democrats in Florida have cast a ballot (EIP or VBM) in...

21h

#earlyvote afternoon update 11/1: at least 25 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳 rpubs.com/ElectProject/e

#earlyvote midday update 11/1: at least 24 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳 rpubs.com/ElectProject/e

#earlyvote morning update 11/1: at least 23.9 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳 rpubs.com/ElectProject/e

Doesn't look like we're going to get the Georgia file at a reasonable time tonight so signing off to get some sleep

You would think some kid somewhere is suffering from a tummy ache from eating too much candy and their Fox-watching parents rushed them to the hospital for fentanyl poisoning...and the story would wall-to-wall on Fox

So, everyone's been sheltering in place to avoid the fentanyl laced rainbow candy, right?

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I've had RSV or something like it for the past two weeks (not COVID, tested negative). I can't even begin to describe how exhausted I am. First day in two weeks I haven't been coughing

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David Byler

@databyler

The kiddo had RSV for eight days (he's okay!). We both got it too. Tomorrow is his first full day back at daycare In *this* moment, I don't care that much how my pieces from Oct look in retrospect? I mean I think they'll be fine. But I'm sorta just proud I produced anything

#earlyvote evening update 10/31: at least 23 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳 rpubs.com/ElectProject/e

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michaelmcdonald.substack.com

While younger NC voters 18-29 are increasing their share of the early vote (mail and in-person) as we near Election Day (a very typical pattern), their share of the overall early vote is consistently lower each day of early voting compared to 2018

Updating this post: NC has caught up and is now slightly above 2018 total early vote at the same number of days prior to the election (not accounting for population growth). But, young voters 18-29 still lagging. Were 8.0% in 2018, are 6.2% now

What's Going on with the Youth Early Vote?

A Politico story published on Oct. 28 raises alarms about the youth early vote. From the story: More than 15 million voters have already cast their midterm ballots, according to the United States...

Almost as if this is just a fundraising stunt

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Jen Fifield

@JenAFifield

Two hours into their stay in jail, True the Vote posted a call for donations on Truth Social. “And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free. John 8:32. To join us in cause, please donate here.” texas.votebeat.org/2022/10/31/234 via @JessicaHuseman

#earlyvote midday update 10/31: at least 22 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳 rpubs.com/ElectProject/e

Which polls will set the GOP narrative of massive vote fraud among African-American communities when Walker does not get 20% of the vote in Black precincts? 🤔

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Drew Savicki

@DrewSav

Herschel Walker % of Black vote in GOP vs nonpartisan polls: InsiderAdvantage (R): 19% CoEfficient (R): 22% Rasmussen (R): 25% NYT/Siena: 7%

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Florida, Georgia and SEC Respond to Antisemitic Messaging in Jacksonville

A solid (and expected pattern) in the PA mail ballot data is that no or minor party registrants are slowing inching up day-to-day in ballot returns. They were ~7% of all voters when large numbers of ballots started coming in two weeks ago and they were ~10% last week

I thought to explore if the PA Senate debate affected ballot return rates by party registration, but I think it is a bit premature to do the analysis

Today's PA absentee ballot file appears to have reporting lags. There are only 235 ballots identified as being returned last Friday, which is not credible

Notably silent: DeSantis who was at the game

si.com

Numerous antisemitic messages were witnessed across Jacksonville around the Florida-Georgia game.

This is the make-or-break week for early voting. If the past is a guide, the volume should pick up as people who tend to be younger and do not hold as strong partisan attachments make their choices and decide to vote

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#earlyvote morning update 10/31: at least 21.5 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳 rpubs.com/ElectProject/e

Florida has no statewide database for ex-felons who owe fines, fees, and restitution. Maybe you are eligible to vote, but you can't figure it out or maybe you try to but are given bad info. This is a trap designed to intimidate people fearful of going back to prison from voting

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Lawrence Mower

@lmower3

NEW: A week after @GovRonDeSantis announced voter fraud arrests, Florida quietly updated a form for Floridians on probation: "By signing this letter you agree that you are solely responsible for determining if you are legally able to register to vote." tampabay.com/news/florida-p

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After voter fraud arrests, Florida issues new forms that could bolster future cases

NEW: A week after

announced voter fraud arrests, Florida quietly updated a form for Floridians on probation: "By signing this letter you agree that you are solely responsible for determining if you are legally able to register to vote."

tampabay.com

“This is just going to make future prosecutions easier for the state,” an attorney said. “I think it’s horrifying.”

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Dan Friedman

@dfriedman33

Russians used a US firm to funnel funds to GOP in 2018. Dems say the FEC let them get away with it.

Russians used a US firm to funnel funds to GOP in 2018. Dems say the FEC let them get away with it.

motherjones.com

"Republicans disregarded decades of Commission precedent."

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I'd pay $44 billion for a blue check

A reminder Georgia notified me that their election management system has scheduled maintenance this evening and the absentee file will be delayed. I likely will run it tomorrow morning

Nevada

posted early voting numbers for the prior week. They're now on the tracker cc:

@RalstonReports

nvsos.gov/sos/elections/

Meg Marco

@meghann

Churches Are Breaking the Law by Endorsing in Elections, Experts Say. The IRS Looks the Other Way.

Churches are breaking the law when they endorse political candidates, and the IRS is supposed to do something about it. But, as

@propublica

and

@TexasTribune

found, the agency is not doing its job. Reporters found more violations than IRS investigations.

propublica.org

For nearly 70 years, federal law has barred churches from directly involving themselves in political campaigns, but the IRS has largely abdicated its enforcement responsibilities as churches have...

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Who will moderate the moderators?

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Davey Alba

@daveyalba

Elon Musk has deleted his tweet spreading an unfounded conspiracy about Pelosi’s husband. And his fans are now upset that he has “caved to the leftist mob”

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Michael Harriot

@michaelharriot