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Tamie Wilson (D) for US Congress (OH-4)

- donate smart!

@ElectLeft

Dec 27, 2021

Replying to @Wianette_Kaehne and @Marcus4Georgia

Every dollar donated to the Flowers campaign is a dollar that could have been used to defeat a Republican in a winnable district instead. You are threatening democracy in America by squandering this money. fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-l

I put vastly too much work into this map of the 2011 Mary-Mander, but I hope

@Redistrict

fans like

@Contrainer

will enjoy it. #MD

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Replying to @Contrainer

Maryland Dem leadership kowtows to the Congress-critters WAY too much. Sarbanes, Dutch, Mfume, etc, requested certain neighborhoods in their districts, so state legislature made it happen. It wasn't even a tactical anti-Republican gerrymander, just personal preference.

Unmistakable demographics in this graph. We can all call the Warnock win.

ElectLeft Retrospective: This call was the one I really wanted to get wrong, but unfortunately I nailed it.

@YuhLine

Niou, start organizing for 2024.

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Dear NY progressives, what is going on in #NY10? @CarlinaRivera looks solid, but... @RepMondaire? If vote splitting leaves the village repped by a shitlib ,

twitter.com/CarlinaRivera/…

ElectLeft Retrospective: It turns out

@Disrupt_Corrupt

is in fact a scammer with a good marketing team. But at the time I didn't know how to tell. DO NOT DONATE to nebulous NPOs online that you haven't seen in person or in MULTIPLE news articles.

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PSA: Do Not Donate to nebulous NPOs online that you haven't seen in person or in multiple news articles. No offense intended to DisruptCorrupt. You may well be honorable and effective. But we have no way to differentiate you from a scammer with a good marketing team. 1/2 twitter.com/Disrupt_Corrup…

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This was my worst post of the year, 3 out of 4 wrong. 🤷 I'm very bad at Republican primaries and shouldn't try to predict them any more.

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#WY01 (Cheney) R+25 = likely lose primary #WA04 (Newhouse) R+12 = it's complicated* #WA03 (JHB) R+5 = probably win* #SC07 (Rice) R+11 = likely lose primary #MI03 (Meijer) D+1 = hard to say #CA22 (Valadao) D+3 = likely lose general* * = top-two open primary twitter.com/atrupar/status…

Dear

, we appreciate that you ran, and especially that you didn't hog millions of donation dollars like a certain GA14 grifter. But #OH04 is a 30-70 district. No Democrat can win there. If Lincoln or Reagan came back from the dead & ran as a Democrat, they'd lose.

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@TamieUSCongress

Nov 18, 2022

And just think, if people would have supported my campaign, I could have beat Jim Jordan.

I will beat him in 2024!

Scammers like

, who tricked #gulliberals into burning mega-dollars of donations & person-decades of volunteering on fool's errands, are why the Dems lost the House.

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Really American

@ReallyAmerican1

Nov 18, 2022

For future reference, we should never allow extremist, unfit candidates like Marjorie Taylor Greene to run for office unopposed. Who else agrees?

David Callahan

@DavidCallahanIP

Nov 19, 2022

Democratic donors gave $15 million for Marcus Flowers' campaign against Majorie Taylor Greene—who won, predictably, by 32 points. Meanwhile, multiple Dems — many underfunded — lost state and federal legislative races by tiny margins. What a broken system.

underestimated: #KS03 #NC13 #OH13 #WA03. overestimated: Tim Ryan, #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #NY03 #NY04 #NY17. yes-timated: AK AZ FL GA IA ME MI MN NH NM NV OR PA TX VA WI battlegrounds (esp #TX34), the rest of CA NC OH, #CO07 #CO08. nailed: safe blue & too red lists (esp #GA14). #🌬️my📯

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FWIW best guess 50 Senate seats +/- 2. Definitely Kelly & Hassan (my 2 least favorite battleground Senators), probably Warnock & Fetterman, maybe Ryan & Cortez Masto. As for the House, let's just say I hope I'm wrong. GET OUT THE VOTE mobilize.us

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Update: #AZ01 has been called for Schweikert. Hodge was always the underdog against a red district incumbent, but it still stings. @MarkGorman4CA06 I expect Katie Porter will win #CA47, and Andrea Salinas in #OR06. I'll throw a party if Boeboe loses, but I doubt it.

I'm confused. Redistricting left #NY04 largely intact. It was by far the bluest district the Dems lost, nationwide. My 100% win "Safe Blue" list had lots of seats half as blue. Gillen had respectable $1.4M funding. It shoulda been a gimme. What happened,

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Replying to @themaxburns and @nw3

The Dems hung Laura Gillen out to dry in a totally winnable race on Long Island. They gave up after the redistributing battle was lost.

Max Burns

@themaxburns

Nov 13, 2022

It's hard to overstate how devastating the loss of seats in New York was for control of the House, largely due to a New York Democratic Party that did almost no on-the-ground organizing work to help candidates in tough races.

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Acyn

@Acyn

Nov 12, 2022

Revision on House projection

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0:24

2.5M views

1,019

8,231

In theory, Dems could still hold the House. In practice, no. They'd need to win at least 7 of these 9 elections, but currently are losing in 6 of them. #AZ01 #CA47 #OR06 #CA13 #CA22 #CA41 #CO03 #NY22

9 House elections still being counted:
ahead: Hodge vs Schweikert, Porter vs Baugh, Salinas vs Erikson.
behind: Engel vs Ciscomani, Gray vs Duerte, Salas vs Valadao, Rollins vs Calvert, Frisch vs Boebert, Conole vs Williams.

read image description

ALT

Corrections: #CA13 is still being counted, so maybe

@AdamGrayCA

can turn it around. And unfortunately #CA41 is also still being counted. Incumbent

@KenCalvert

has overtaken the early lead of

@WillRollinsCA

. 😿 If there's a national narrative, it involves the losses in CA & NY.

Retrospective Analysis: Dems did in fact win 2/3rds of my battleground short list. It should have been just enough, but four races with bluer demographics lost: #CA13 #MD06 #NY04 #NY17 Changing the result from predicted 218-217 to 214-221 (or 215-220 if Frisch beats Boebert).

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ElectLeft: Protect This House! thread

3 weeks away, here are the close battleground elections. DEMS MUST WIN 2/3rds of these to retain House majority. WE MUST FOCUS our efforts here! If you're posting about unwinnable seats like #GA14 #OH04 or ARxx, YOU ARE HELPING REPUBLICANS.

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FiveThirtyEight's House Forecast:
195 likely or solid blue, 209 likely or solid red, very very few in between.

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ALT

Replying to

and

Let's think about that. Withdrawn candidate Kevin Van Ausdal got 78K votes with nearly no spending. Lying grifter Marcus Flowers got 88K votes for $15 MILLION. Those 10K more votes cost $1500 EACH. Imagine if that money had been spent better. MARCUS FLOWERS COST DEMS THE HOUSE.

ElectLeft Big Picture Analysis: BLUE WAVE: Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania BLUISH: Arizona MIXED: Georgia, Nevada REDDISH: New York, Ohio, Wisconsin RED WAVE: Florida, Iowa, Texas

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Replying to @BitecoferStan

σ+50% States will have wildly varying generic averages, with a mix of red & blue waves, hopefully dumbfounding pundits trying to manufacture a national narrative.

50-47 for

in #RI02 means both

get raspberries today. 😜 Fung still outperformed the demographics, but only half as much as he needed. twitter.com/TheRatKing21/s

This Tweet is unavailable.

If coward

had stayed in #NY18 with 2/3rds of his constituents, both he &

@RepMondaire

would be staying in the House. Instead he betrayed Mondaire, New York, & the nation, costing them TWO incumbents. YOU SUCK, COWARD SEAN PATRICK MALONEY!

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Ezra Levin

@ezralevin

May 17, 2022

2 words for this: 1) Cowardice 2) Hypocrisy Maloney's job is to help Dems win tough seats. He's now abandoning his own district to run against a fellow Dem in a safer district. Maloney is RUNNING from a fight he's supposed to be LEADING. Embarrassing, disgraceful behavior. twitter.com/spmaloney/stat…

p.s. Grifter Marcus Flowers 34% vs Marjorie Three Toes 66%. Please remember this @CaseyDallasTX @PattyAnnWoods

et al. YOU HELPED REPUBLICANS BY WASTING MONEY & EFFORT.

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Replying to @Wianette_Kaehne and @Marcus4Georgia

ElectLeft Preliminary Results: 99.8% ACCURATE! Ratings Safe Blue / Too Red: PERFECT. Ratings Likely Blue / Mostly Red: 90.7%, surprised by: CONGRATS

@MGPforCongress

#WA03! hope

@AdamForColorado

#CO03 vs #Boeboe🤡! doubt

@LauraGillen19

#NY04. YOU SUCK, COWARD

@SPMaloney

#NY17.

Take Action Now! · DemCast USA on Mobilize

Nick Knudsen

@NickKnudsenUS

Nov 4, 2022

We’re beyond “make sure to vote”. We’re past “tell your friends”. We need people to step up over the next 4 days: Text bank. Phone bank. Knock doors. Here are some curated opportunities in key states. Let’s leave it all on the field. #NoRegrets

mobilize.us

Find events, petitions, volunteer opportunities, fundraisers and more with DemCast USA.

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Volunteer Opportunities, Events, and Petitions Near Me · Mobilize

Create change in your community. Find events, petitions, volunteer opportunities, and fundraisers in your local area, organized by charities, campaigns, political organizations, grassroots groups,...

I've done my best to reach people with accurate information about where to donate, and where NOT to. At this point, ANY FURTHER DONATIONS SHOULD GO TO RIDE SHARING FUNDS, providing free transportation to polling places. The candidates have already spent what they can.

Joan Hussey w/free blue check

@Joanhussey1

Oct 27, 2022

Only 100 people can be a US Senator Your vote counts, use it Mark Kelly

@CaptMarkKelly

AZ Mandela Barnes

@TheOtherMandela

WI Maggie Hassan

@Maggie_Hassan

NH Catherine Cortez Masto

@CortezMasto

NV Val Demings

@valdemings

FL Cheri Beasley

@CheriBeasleyNC

NC #DemVoice1

100

we the people (#wtpBLUE)

@wtpBLUE

Oct 28, 2022

If the GOP wins both Houses in Nov, they plan to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act😡 The GOP will repeal the $35 a month cap on insulin for individuals on Medicare, & the $2,000 annual cap on prescription drug costs 4 seniors #VoteBlueToStopTheGOP #wtpBLUE wtp1616

488

495

If Marcus wins or even comes close, I'll donate to your favorite charity! Read this thread and take my wager. @Ga21Renee

#CA11 Nancy Pelosi: $23M OF COURSE hundred-millionaire

@TeamPelosi

is the queen of House fundraising. And OF COURSE she doesn't need a single penny of it. Her district is so blue, it would elect an old t-shirt with the letter D on it. 11/11

#CA47 Katie Porter: $22M

@KatiePorterOC

, I am VERY disappoint. I get that you're in a tough district, but you still have $10M in the bank. Progressives are NOT supposed to hoard wealth like a dragon. 10/

#GA14 Marcus Flowers: $14M

@Marcus4Georgia

has burned through his megabucks by spending it on MORE FUNDRAISING, because as I keep telling you, he's a F***ING GRIFTER. 9/

#MD06 David Trone: $13M Heading to the other end of the wealth spectrum,

@DavidJTrone

received a MOUNTAIN of cash and is still sitting on almost half of it. You better not lose, David. 8/

#PA01 Ashley Ehasz: $800k

@Ashley_Ehasz

was at least able to provide #GOTV, but her district was WINNABLE if she had $2+M like other battleground candidates. 7/

#WI01 Ann Roe: $700k

was at least able to provide #GOTV, but her district was WINNABLE if she had $2+M like other battleground candidates. 6/

#NC09 Ben Clark: only $90k In a swing state, EVERY district needs #GOTV funding.

@BenClarkNC

didn't get nearly enough. If Cheri Beasley loses by a few thousand votes, this is why. 5/

#FL28 Robert Asencio: only $90k In a swing state, EVERY district needs #GOTV funding.

@RepAsencio

didn't get nearly enough. If Charlie Crist or Val Demings lose by a few thousand votes, this is why. AND this district was winnable itself! 4/

#OH10 David Esrati: only $38k In a swing state, EVERY district needs #GOTV funding.

@Esrati

barely got any. If Tim Ryan loses by a few thousand votes, this is why. 3/

#FL07 Karen Green: only $27k In a swing state, EVERY district needs #GOTV funding.

@KarenforFlorida

barely get any. If Charlie Crist or Val Demings lose by a few thousand votes, this is why. 2/

#OH15 Gary Josephson: only $12k In a swing state, EVERY district needs #GOTV funding.

@Josephson4Rep

didn't get any. If Tim Ryan loses by a few thousand votes, this is why. 1/