How should the US adapt its defenses in a world in which it can no longer simply impose its will, above all because of the rise of its first true peer in over a century?
I tried to lay this out in The Strategy of Denial 👇
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Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
Principal, Marathon Initiative. Former Pentagon, 2018 National Defense Strategy, inter alia. Author of Strategy of Denial. Views my own.
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参考までに、これは「差し迫った」例えば1-2年の侵略のタイムラインを前提にしているわけではありません。2030年以前の話であっても、このような行動が必要です。
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いずれにせよ、レトリック／警告とそれに対応する行動との間のこの不一致は、何の意味もなさない。私たちはそれらを調和させる必要がある。
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まさに私の見解だ。私は、この情報と分析は本物であり、根拠があると思う。従って、我々は国家的な動員を行うべきである。
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近い将来、戦争が起こるかもしれない。もし、ミニハン将軍が言っているように、中国共産党が今後2年の間に台湾への侵攻を積極的に計画しているという信頼できる証拠があるならば、米政府と軍全体が、第二次世界大戦以来見られなかったスピードと規模で動員されるべきだろう。
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Elbridge Colby Tweet和訳
この点については、私も***完全に***同意します。レトリックと行動の間に深いミスマッチがある。私はもっと行動することを勧める。
「中国の侵略が差し迫っているという、より警戒心の強い警告は、戦争が始まった場合に期待される対応する行動と一致していない...」。
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I ***completely*** agree with this point. There is a profound mismatch between rhetoric and action. I recommend more action.
"The more alarmist warnings about an imminent Chinese invasion are not being matched by the corresponding behavior one would expect if war is on..."1/ twitter.com/CSIS/status/16…
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Replying to @JohnHemmings2 @ElbridgeColby and @nfergus
There's a long list of historical examples in which countries start a war when they perceive that they have an opportunity before the coalition facing them is strong enough.
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追加点：もしケーガンが1941年にアメリカに対する枢軸国を集計しようとしているなら、ロシア、イラン、北朝鮮を少なくとも今日の中国側に含むべきではないだろうか。おそらく、パキスタンやカンボジアなども含まれるのではないだろうか？そうすると、状況はさらに悪くなります。
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私の理解では、これは間違っているだけでなく、劇的に間違っている。
例えば、アンドリュー・クレピネヴィッチの名著「Preserving the Balance」からのグラフをご覧ください。
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以下はケイガンの主張である。
『中国の指導者は、過去に覇権を目指した国と同じ過ちを犯しているのかもしれない。中国は、それほど手ごわくない位置から出発している。1941年、枢軸国のGDPは米国のそれよりも大きく、米英のGDPよりも少し小さいだけだった。』
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Elbridge Colby Tweet和訳
今日のに掲載されたロバート・ケーガンの記事には、単純に間違っていると思う、彼の核となる議論を根本から覆す主張が私にはあります。
中国が米国のGDPに占める割合はかつての枢軸国よりもはるかに大きく、その挑戦はより説得力がある。 twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/
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In part yes and in part no. Factories can be retooled for military purposes. China has a greater supply of ready-to-switch facilities and manufacturing-trained workers.
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Zero credibility. “Cherish” harder, and then we’ll talk…
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FWIW this isn't predicated on an "imminent" eg 1-2 years invasion timeline. We need this kind of action even if we're talking before 2030. 5/
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In any case, this discordance between rhetoric/warnings and corresponding action doesn't make any sense. We need to reconcile them. 4/
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Exactly my view. I think the intelligence and analysis are real and well-grounded. Ergo we should have a national mobilization. 3/
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the near horizon. If there is credible evidence that the PLA is actively planning to invade Taiwan in the next two years, as Minihan seems to be indicating, then the entire U.S. government and military should be mobilizing at a speed and scale not seen since World War II." 2/
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I ***completely*** agree with this point. There is a profound mismatch between rhetoric and action. I recommend more action.
"The more alarmist warnings about an imminent Chinese invasion are not being matched by the corresponding behavior one would expect if war is on..."1/
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I ***completely*** agree with this. There is a profound mismatch between rhetoric and action. I prefer more action.
"The alarmist warnings about an imminent Chinese invasion are not being matched by the corresponding behavior one would expect if war is on the near horizon..."1/
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Replying to
That's a key point: A precondition for US foreign policy during the 20th century was a massive economy compared to its rivals as well as a vast manufacturing infrastructure.
Geopolitical strategy in 21st century needs to take account of contemporary circumstances.
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I’m just gonna keep writing a lot of threads on super weird but possible military capabilities with the knowledge that the PLA will field at least some of them.
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#China has never violated the territorial integrity or airspace of any country, a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Saturday, commenting on the Chinese #Balloon over the US.
I think #Vietnam, #Philippines, #Malaysia, #Indonesia, #India, #Nepal, #Bhutan & #Tibet disagree.
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Additional point: If Kagan is going to tally up the Axis powers against the US in 1941, shouldn't we then include Russia, Iran, and North Korea at least on China's side of the ledger today? Perhaps also eg Pakistan, Cambodia, et al? That makes the situation even worse. 5/
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This is also a very real factor. We were the world's industrial powerhouse in WWII and even during the Cold War. No longer.
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Replying to @ElbridgeColby and @WSJ
wars are won with manufacturing like plants/shipyards,instead of service sectors like overpriced lawsuits/films.
70% of USA's GDP are service while China'a manufacturing almost equal to G7 combined.
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The article is the epitome of dangerous wishful thinking .An attempt of projecting a falsified (Axis GDP >Allies) correlation of WW2 forces to the present -with implication that even if China’s GDP surpasses the USAs -Victory will be assured as was achieved during WW2.
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A gradual decline in population isn't a "population bomb."
In 100 years, China's population will still be significantly more than all of Europe combined, and twice that of the US.
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Major problem with sanctions against a big economy: There's a lot of money to be made in circumventing them.
Case in point:
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Due to many problems on the domestic + international front, Americans were very pessimistic (esp. during 60s + 70s) on winning the Cold War. This strict standard was the source of our strength. Arrogance has always lead to the downfall of great powers, smth we have forgotten. twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/
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Once again, Bridge hits the nail on the head 👇👇👇
We were always proactive, not reactive. That’s how we won WWII & the Cold War. twitter.com/elbridgecolby/
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Except the “US outspends the next [large number] countries” is based on bad statistics:
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And, too, in the 1940s, the US was on a decisively upward trajectory. The US itself was the emerging great power.
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Replying to
The fear is always, even with our massive defense budget, that dwarfs other countries combined, that the U.S. has become complacent.
Communication matters - it's been horrendous.
Guiding a narrative - it's like we let a balloon go and its flying all which ways - pun intended.
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Replying to @realEAKlein @ElbridgeColby and @CSBAdc
It's also from 2014.
In 2021,
1. China's nominal GDP was 74% of US nominal GDP.
2. China's PPP GDP was 119% of US PPP GDP.
China is also expected to grow much faster than the US this year (and probably will for the foreseeable future).
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