Jeppy

No-one can be confident in their strategy, because for all sides - Leave, Remain & also within those groups - every path is full of uncertainty.

Could that bill get through parliament? Fuck knows. If you had to bet you'd say yes, but no-one in their right mind would want to put down their money. Might easily get clogged down in amendments.

If there's an amendment on the 2020 extension, would it threaten to lose the ERG. If there isn't, could it lose indie Tories? If there's one on customs union, could SNP and Lib Dems back it?

But once you get to election, the whole this is up in the air: Johnson campaigning before Brexit, locked into deal, after a deadline he set, with a flank against Farage.

And f course the very real fear that it returns a hung parliament and leaves us where we started.

Meanwhile Europe wants it done, but no-deal is a restriction on them too - blocks their room to manoeuvre. Would a short extension force the issue in parliament? Or just bring them back again next month?

That's why everyone is breaking into ever smaller tribes within Labour, Tories, Remain, Leave. Because no-one actually knows the right way to proceed. It's all too tight and chaotic.

TL;dr - we're fucked. It's mad. No-one knows shit.