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@lucyfrazermp flatters my “considerable experience” in this area. Actually no.
But in 40+ years of experimental physics, always make sure I measure what I think I’m measuring. Preferably 2 different ways.
Looking for that with our PCR testing.
Not getting answers.
(thread)
So I wrote back to @lucyfrazermp for another go. Here’s my letter.
They don’t understand how serious this is.
If they can’t tell us the oFPR, our PCR testing is worthless. (thread)pic.twitter.com/zHJ8SJCzf1
Govt refers to ONS Prevalence survey (random selection – we got chosen), a different operation. It’s oFPR of the Pillar 2 and Pillar 1 testing we need. And whenever we ask … “The UK oFPR is unknown” (thread)
HMG told 3 June what to do:
1.Measure oFPR as priority
http://2.Do EQA of the UK national Covid-19 PCR testing
3.rolling EQA to monitor performance
4.Add other diagnostics
@MarcusFysh MP had a go at 1,2,3 …
(thread)
… and now we’ve a great new diagnostic test
The “Innova” Lateral Flow antigen test #GoWithTheFlow
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-university-and-phe-confirm-high-sensitivity-of-lateral-flow-tests …
And its oFPR has been independently measured !
Hallellujah !
It’s oFPR = 0.32%.
(thread)
Why can’t HMG measure the oFPR of the PCR ?
LFT test : oFPR = 0.32 %
PCR test : oFPR = “unknown”,
from two Ministers + my MP.
Not Good Enough @MattHancock
#GoWithTheFlow Lateral Flow is credible.
PCR is uninterpretable ... (thread)
PCR is uninterpretable, unless you measure : the oFPR of the “Pillar 2” and “Pillar 1” programmes End to end. Not the lab accuracy. Not some other testing programme. (thread)
Free citizens of England, write to your MP and roar. Demand to know: The oFPR of Pillar 2 and Pillar 1 Their FDR Where’s the EQA advised 5 months ago ? Where’s the rolling EQA ? Why use a test with "unknown" oFPR when we've another where it's 0.32% ? (thread)
Gwyr Cymru, Scotland the Brave, Ulster ... write to your MPs too. Good luck to one and all
How can they not know?! The mind boggles.
The problem with the reliance on Carl Meyers submission to SAGE is that I heard from an old friend in DSTL that SAGE didn't consider it, certainly at the time, it was just one of a lot of papers submitted. It's spot on about what should be done but that would expose a few truths.
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